Scoringwt 20 · 1/1 metricsBuffalo
Buffalo20Ball State
Buffalo's scoring offense (#106) faces Ball State's scoring defense (#131). This is weakness against weakness: both units rank in the bottom 30%, so neither brings a strong season-long profile to this comparison.
Ball State's scoring offense (#108) faces Buffalo's scoring defense (#79). Buffalo's defense has the stronger ranking here, which could limit Ball State's offense in this area.
These rankings compare points scored per game versus points allowed per game.
Rushingwt 15 · 2/2 metricsBuffalo
Buffalo19Ball State
Buffalo's rushing offense (#44) faces Ball State's rush defense (#115). This is a major statistical advantage for Buffalo's offense against a much lower-ranked defensive unit.
Ball State's rushing offense (#90) faces Buffalo's rush defense (#79). The rankings are close, with no clear statistical separation in this matchup.
These rankings compare rushing yards gained per game versus rushing yards allowed per game.
Yards per carry (offense): Buffalo averages 4.2 yards per carry (#79), compared with Ball State at 4.3 yards per carry (#74). That is about 0.1 more yards per carry for Ball State, supporting an advantage in rushing efficiency.
Passingwt 15 · 2/2 metricsBall State
Buffalo-8Ball State
Buffalo's passing offense (#130) faces Ball State's pass defense (#106). This is weakness against weakness: both units rank in the bottom 30%, so neither brings a strong season-long profile to this comparison.
Ball State's passing offense (#102) faces Buffalo's pass defense (#95). The rankings are close, with no clear statistical separation in this matchup.
These rankings compare passing yards gained per game versus passing yards allowed per game.
Yards per attempt (offense): Buffalo averages 5 yards per pass attempt (#138), compared with Ball State at 6.3 yards per pass attempt (#121). That is about 1.3 more yards per pass attempt for Ball State, supporting an advantage in passing efficiency.
Drive efficiencywt 15 · 3/3 metricsBuffalo
Buffalo22Ball State
Buffalo's third-down offense (#84) faces Ball State's third-down defense (#115). The rank gap gives Buffalo's offense a favorable statistical matchup.
Ball State's third-down offense (#111) faces Buffalo's third-down defense (#49). Buffalo's defense has a major statistical advantage here and could make this part of Ball State's offense difficult to sustain.
These rankings compare third-down conversion rate versus the rate allowed to opponents.
Buffalo's red-zone scoring offense (#80) faces Ball State's red-zone scoring defense (#124). The rank gap gives Buffalo's offense a favorable statistical matchup.
Ball State's red-zone scoring offense (#100) faces Buffalo's red-zone scoring defense (#60). Buffalo's defense has the stronger ranking here, which could limit Ball State's offense in this area.
These rankings compare the share of red-zone trips ending in any score (touchdown or field goal), not touchdown rate alone.
Buffalo's red-zone touchdown offense (#113) faces Ball State's red-zone touchdown defense (#137). This is weakness against weakness: both units rank in the bottom 30%, so neither brings a strong season-long profile to this comparison.
Ball State's red-zone touchdown offense (#30) faces Buffalo's red-zone touchdown defense (#85). The rank gap gives Ball State's offense a favorable statistical matchup.
These rankings compare the share of red-zone trips ending in a touchdown versus the rate allowed to opponents.
Explosive playswt 10 · 1/1 metricsNo clear edge
Buffalo-7Ball State
Buffalo's big-play offense (#122) faces Ball State's big-play defense (#91). Ball State's defense has the stronger ranking here, which could limit Buffalo's offense in this area.
Ball State's big-play offense (#80) faces Buffalo's big-play defense (#69). The rankings are close, with no clear statistical separation in this matchup.
These rankings compare 20+ yard plays made per game versus 20+ yard plays allowed per game.
Pass protection / pressurewt 10 · 1/1 metricsBall State
Buffalo-16Ball State
Buffalo's pass protection (#96) faces Ball State's pass rush (#99). The rankings are close, with no clear statistical separation in this matchup.
Ball State's pass protection (#57) faces Buffalo's pass rush (#103). The rank gap gives Ball State's offense a favorable statistical matchup.
These rankings compare sacks allowed per game versus sacks made per game; rank 1 is best for both.
Turnover marginwt 5 · 1/1 metricsNo clear edge
Buffalo0Ball State
Turnover margin (takeaways − giveaways): Buffalo averages -0.4 net turnovers per game (#99), compared with Ball State at -0.4 net turnovers per game (#99). The displayed rates are even.
Field-goal efficiencywt 5 · 0/1 metricsNot enough data
Not collected or not broadly ranked; no advantage is assigned.
Schedule contextwt 5 · 1/1 metricsNo clear edge
Buffalo-4Ball State
Opponents' combined win rate: Buffalo 50%; Ball State 54.2%. This is a schedule proxy, not a full opponent adjustment.