WEEKLY SLATE / CFB 2026

Week 10 - 11/03 thru 11/04

5 games / 10 teams

LeagueSeasonWeek

		TV						SOS A/H	Weather	Flags
Ohio6-2@ Akron1-7	Tue, 11/037:00 PM EST	TBA	----	--	--	88103	49118	11370	--	INJ 6
Buffalo5-3@ Miami (OH)5-3	Tue, 11/038:00 PM EST	TBA	----	--	--	11796	9278	93121	--	INJ 7
Central Michigan3-5vs Eastern Michigan4-5	Wed, 11/047:30 PM EST	TBA	----	--	--	133126	6990	22115	--	NEUINJ 4
Toledo6-2@ Sacramento State1-7	Wed, 11/047:00 PM EST	TBA	----	--	--	11132	4084	12687	--	INJ 12
Ball State3-5@ Massachusetts4-4	Wed, 11/047:00 PM EST	TBA	----	--	--	111113	12537	61120	--	INJ 7

Click a row for full analytics. Rank tiers by percentile of FBS teams: dark green top 18%, green 36%, gray 64%, orange 82%, red below. AP in gold. "--" = not collected.

Ball State vs Massachusetts / ESC TO CLOSE

Ball State vs Massachusetts: Week 10 Matchup Breakdown

MATCHUP ANALYSIS · Ball State vs Massachusetts

11/04 · 7:00 PM EST

Unranked

Ball State3-5AWAY

Unranked

Massachusetts4-4HOME

Point spreadNot collectedSource and update time not collected

Over / underNot collectedSource and update time not collected

Game-time weatherNot collectedWeather not collected · Source and update time not collected

Informational only · not an offer to wager · lines as of time not collected

OVERALL MATCHUP SUMMARYCLEAR STATISTICAL LEAN

Strong statistical edge: Massachusetts

Massachusetts has the stronger available statistical profile, led by scoring and passing. Ball State's clearest counterpoint is schedule context. This describes the data, not a predicted winner.

Data coverageBroad95% of planned weight

How much of the comparison had usable stats. Not a win probability.

SampleBall State: 8 profile games · Massachusetts: 8 profile games8 of 9 factors scored

Ball State: injury report carried from 2026 Week 8; statuses have not been re-confirmed. Massachusetts: injury report freshness is not confirmed (no report collected).

When each team has the ball

Ball State offense

No clear favorable rank gap appears in the comparable metrics. The main counterpoint is passing yards/game (Ball State #102 vs Massachusetts #26).

Massachusetts offense

The clearest favorable comparison is red-zone score % (Massachusetts #33 vs Ball State #127). No large opposing-defense rank gap appears in the comparable metrics.

Key factors to watch

Scoring: Massachusetts has the stronger comparable profile. Points scored vs points allowed/game: Ball State offense #108 vs Massachusetts defense #46; Massachusetts offense #86 vs Ball State defense #131.
Passing: Massachusetts has the stronger comparable profile. Passing yards/game: Ball State offense #102 vs Massachusetts defense #26; Massachusetts offense #111 vs Ball State defense #109. Yards per attempt (offense): Ball State 6.3 (#123); Massachusetts 7.2 (#81).
Drive efficiency: Massachusetts has the stronger comparable profile. Third-down conversion %: Ball State offense #110 vs Massachusetts defense #57; Massachusetts offense #125 vs Ball State defense #116. Red-zone score %: Ball State offense #104 vs Massachusetts defense #48; Massachusetts offense #33 vs Ball State defense #127. Red-zone TD %: Ball State offense #30 vs Massachusetts defense #40; Massachusetts offense #79 vs Ball State defense #136.

Situational context

Ball State is 3-5 overall. Massachusetts is 4-4 overall.
Ball State is 1-4 on the road. Massachusetts is 2-2 at home.
Ball State: 10 days between games. Massachusetts: 11 days between games.
Ball State: previous opponent Sacramento State · 10/24 · home; next opponent Buffalo · 11/11 · home. Massachusetts: previous opponent UConn · 10/23 · away; next opponent Toledo · 11/11 · away.
Possession per game: Ball State 29:45; Massachusetts 29:07. Style context, not an automatic advantage.
Ball State: 2 out / season-ending / doubtful entries in the last available injury report. No player-value adjustment is applied.

Driver breakdown8/9 SCORED

Scoringwt 20 · 1/1 metricsMassachusetts
Ball State-39Massachusetts
Points scored vs points allowed/game: Ball State offense #108 vs Massachusetts defense #46; Massachusetts offense #86 vs Ball State defense #131.
Rushingwt 15 · 2/2 metricsMassachusetts
Ball State-16Massachusetts
Rushing yards/game: Ball State offense #92 vs Massachusetts defense #71; Massachusetts offense #86 vs Ball State defense #113. Yards per carry (offense): Ball State 4.3 (#78); Massachusetts 4.5 (#59).
Passingwt 15 · 2/2 metricsMassachusetts
Ball State-28Massachusetts
Passing yards/game: Ball State offense #102 vs Massachusetts defense #26; Massachusetts offense #111 vs Ball State defense #109. Yards per attempt (offense): Ball State 6.3 (#123); Massachusetts 7.2 (#81).
Drive efficiencywt 15 · 3/3 metricsMassachusetts
Ball State-26Massachusetts
Third-down conversion %: Ball State offense #110 vs Massachusetts defense #57; Massachusetts offense #125 vs Ball State defense #116. Red-zone score %: Ball State offense #104 vs Massachusetts defense #48; Massachusetts offense #33 vs Ball State defense #127. Red-zone TD %: Ball State offense #30 vs Massachusetts defense #40; Massachusetts offense #79 vs Ball State defense #136.
Explosive playswt 10 · 1/1 metricsMassachusetts
Ball State-26Massachusetts
20+ yard plays/game: Ball State offense #80 vs Massachusetts defense #15; Massachusetts offense #86 vs Ball State defense #91.
Pass protection / pressurewt 10 · 1/1 metricsMassachusetts
Ball State-30Massachusetts
Sacks allowed (offense) vs sacks made (defense), per game: Ball State offense #62 vs Massachusetts defense #33; Massachusetts offense #47 vs Ball State defense #101.
Turnover marginwt 5 · 1/1 metricsMassachusetts
Ball State-64Massachusetts
Turnover margin (takeaways − giveaways): Ball State -0.4 (#97); Massachusetts 0.9 (#10).
Field-goal efficiencywt 5 · 0/1 metricsNot enough data
Not collected or not broadly ranked; no advantage is assigned.
Schedule contextwt 5 · 1/1 metricsBall State
Ball State12Massachusetts
Opponents' combined win rate: Ball State 56.6%; Massachusetts 44.7%. This is a schedule proxy, not a full opponent adjustment.

Method and limitations

Limitations

Missing or narrowly covered metrics are excluded. Their weights are not redistributed to the remaining metrics.
Ball State: injury report carried from 2026 Week 8; statuses have not been re-confirmed.
Massachusetts: injury report freshness is not confirmed (no report collected).
Game-time weather not collected; no weather adjustment is applied.

How this is computed

Rules-based comparison of the existing public CFBD pre-week profiles and original injury/context notes, with NWS weather context. No new provider or AI requests.
Rank strength = (teams ranked − rank) / (teams ranked − 1). A metric needs values and ranks for both teams and coverage of at least 80% of the FBS population. Rank 1 is best, including defense allowed and sacks allowed.
For each offense/defense metric: [(away offense strength − home defense strength) − (home offense strength − away defense strength)] / 2. Efficiency-only metrics compare the two teams directly.
Related metrics share a group weight: rushing/passing yardage receives twice the weight of yards per carry/attempt. Third down receives half of drive efficiency; red-zone score and TD percentages share the other half.
Weights: scoring 20%; rushing 15%; passing 15%; drive efficiency 15%; explosive plays 10%; pressure/protection 10%; turnover margin 5%; field goals 5%; schedule context 5%. Schedule uses the difference in opponents’ combined win rates.
Net comparison index: -26.6 on a −100 to +100 scale (positive favors Ball State, negative Massachusetts). Missing weights stay neutral rather than being redistributed. This is not a probability, projected margin or betting model.
Overall call requires 55% of planned scoring weight and three games per team. Under 4 index points is even; 4+ slight; 12+ moderate requires 65% coverage and four games; 25+ strong requires 85% coverage and five games. Incomplete profile samples are not scored.
Record, venue splits, total offense/defense ranks and AP polls are not added again because they overlap existing evidence. Possession time is style context, not inherently better. Injuries, rest, rivalry and weather receive no invented numerical adjustments.
Schedule context is not a true opponent-adjusted rating. This heuristic has not been calibrated against outcomes. Odds are not inputs. Informational only; not a wagering recommendation.

Descriptive comparison of season stats only. The score has not been validated as a predictor and is not a forecast of the result.

TEAM PROFILE

Side by side

TIERS OF 138 FBS

Metric	Ball State	Massachusetts	Edge
Record	3-5	4-4	Massachusetts
SOS rank	#61	#120	Ball State
Offense rank	#111 337.5 ypg	#113 334.6 ypg	Ball State
Defense rank	#125 422.9 allowed	#37 324.5 allowed	Massachusetts
ATS	5-3-0	4-4-0	Ball State
Rest / last game	10d 10/24 · Sacramento State · H	11d 10/23 · UConn · A	Massachusetts
Venue record (away / home)	1-4	2-2	Massachusetts
Next game	11/11 · Buffalo · H	11/11 · Toledo · A	No call
Out / doubtful	2	0	Massachusetts
Season to date · completed games before this week · CFBD
Games in sample	8	8	—
Points / game	22 ppg·108 of 138	26.5 ppg·86 of 138	Massachusetts
Points allowed / game	35.3 ppg·131 of 138	21.1 ppg·46 of 138	Massachusetts
Rushing yards / game	141.3 yds·92 of 138	146.8 yds·86 of 138	Massachusetts
Yards / carry	4.3 yds·78 of 138	4.5 yds·59 of 138	Massachusetts
Passing yards / game	196.3 yds·102 of 138	187.9 yds·111 of 138	Ball State
Yards / pass attempt	6.3 yds·123 of 138	7.2 yds·81 of 138	Massachusetts
3rd-down conversions	34.7%·110 of 138	32.3%·125 of 138	Ball State
Red-zone scores	78.3%·104 of 138	87.5%·33 of 138	Massachusetts
Red-zone TDs	69.6%·30 of 138	58.3%·79 of 138	Ball State
Explosive plays (20+) / game	4.1·80 of 138	4·86 of 138	Ball State
Sacks made / game	1.6·101 of 138	2.5·33 of 138	Massachusetts
Sacks allowed / game	1.8·62 of 138	1.5·47 of 138	Massachusetts
Rush yards allowed / game	183.1 yds·113 of 138	142.6 yds·71 of 138	Massachusetts
Pass yards allowed / game	239.8 yds·109 of 138	181.9 yds·26 of 138	Massachusetts
3rd-down conv. allowed	43.3%·116 of 138	36.3%·57 of 138	Massachusetts
Red-zone scores allowed	90.6%·127 of 138	77.4%·48 of 138	Massachusetts
Red-zone TDs allowed	81.3%·136 of 138	51.6%·40 of 138	Massachusetts
Explosive plays allowed / game	4.4·91 of 138	2.8·15 of 138	Massachusetts
Turnover margin / game	-0.375·97 of 138	+0.875·10 of 138	Massachusetts
Time of possession	29:45·75 of 138	29:07·93 of 138	Ball State
Field goal %	Not collected	Not collected	No call

Offense vs Defense

OFFENSE VS OPPOSING DEFENSE

When Ball State has the ball

EDGE AT 15+ RANK GAP · #1 BEST

Ball State offenseMassachusetts defense

22 ppg·108 of 138

ScoringDefense edge · 62 spots

21.1 ppg·46 of 138

141.3 yds·92 of 138

Rushing yards / gameDefense edge · 21 spots

142.6 yds·71 of 138

196.3 yds·102 of 138

Passing yards / gameDefense edge · 76 spots

181.9 yds·26 of 138

34.7%·110 of 138

Third downDefense edge · 53 spots

36.3%·57 of 138

78.3%·104 of 138

Red-zone scoreDefense edge · 56 spots

77.4%·48 of 138

69.6%·30 of 138

Red-zone TDNo edge

51.6%·40 of 138

4.1·80 of 138

Explosive plays (20+)Defense edge · 65 spots

2.8·15 of 138

1.8·62 of 138

Sacks allowed vs sacks madeDefense edge · 29 spots

2.5·33 of 138

OFFENSE VS OPPOSING DEFENSE

When Massachusetts has the ball

EDGE AT 15+ RANK GAP · #1 BEST

Massachusetts offenseBall State defense

26.5 ppg·86 of 138

ScoringOffense edge · 45 spots

35.3 ppg·131 of 138

146.8 yds·86 of 138

Rushing yards / gameOffense edge · 27 spots

183.1 yds·113 of 138

187.9 yds·111 of 138

Passing yards / gameNo edge

239.8 yds·109 of 138

32.3%·125 of 138

Third downNo edge

43.3%·116 of 138

87.5%·33 of 138

Red-zone scoreOffense edge · 94 spots

90.6%·127 of 138

58.3%·79 of 138

Red-zone TDOffense edge · 57 spots

81.3%·136 of 138

4·86 of 138

Explosive plays (20+)No edge

4.4·91 of 138

1.5·47 of 138

Sacks allowed vs sacks madeOffense edge · 54 spots

1.6·101 of 138

Pace & Pressure

Time of possession / game: Ball State: 29:45·75 of 138; Massachusetts: 29:07·93 of 138
Defensive sacks made / game: Ball State: 1.6·101 of 138; Massachusetts: 2.5·33 of 138
Offensive sacks allowed / game: Ball State: 1.8·62 of 138; Massachusetts: 1.5·47 of 138

Red Zone

Offensive red-zone score rate: Ball State: 78.3%·104 of 138; Massachusetts: 87.5%·33 of 138
Defensive red-zone score rate allowed: Ball State: 90.6%·127 of 138; Massachusetts: 77.4%·48 of 138
Offensive red-zone touchdown rate: Ball State: 69.6%·30 of 138; Massachusetts: 58.3%·79 of 138
Defensive red-zone touchdown rate allowed: Ball State: 81.3%·136 of 138; Massachusetts: 51.6%·40 of 138

AUTO-DETECTED CONTEXT

Flags

1 FLAGS

WALL · Massachusetts defense has a 74-rank edge against Ball State offense.

Ball StateRest: 10 daysNext: 11/11 · Buffalo · H

MassachusettsRest: 11 daysNext: 11/11 · Toledo · A

PLAYER AVAILABILITY

Key injuries

7 LISTED

Ball State: Carried forward from 2026 Week 8 — awaiting a Week 10 update. Statuses have not been re-confirmed.

Massachusetts: No injury report collected.

Team	Player	Pos	Status	Detail
Ball State	C. Breveard	RB	Questionable	Undisclosed Source
Ball State	J. Smith	WR	Questionable	Undisclosed Source
Ball State	A. Cooper	WR	Questionable	Undisclosed Source
Ball State	D. Hamilton	WR	Questionable	Undisclosed Source
Ball State	M. Riggins	TE	Questionable	Undisclosed Source
Ball State	C. Coonrod	TE	Out	Undisclosed Source
Ball State	D. Talbert	WR	Out	Undisclosed (since 9/26) Source

Ball State: No major injuries reported for starters; QB Keldric Luster is healthy, and Covers lists several skill players as questionable with undisclosed injuries.

SCHEDULE CONTEXT

Previous opponents

FULL SEASON

Ball State

Opponent	Date	Result	Line	ATS
@ Ohio State	09/05	L 3-56	50.75	L
Stony Brook	09/12	W 41-17	-13.5	W
@ Liberty	09/19	L 15-51	14.5	L
@ Kent State	09/26	L 13-26	2.5	L
Toledo	10/03	L 24-39	20.75	W
@ Northwestern	10/10	L 14-45	34.75	W
@ Bowling Green	10/17	W 32-31	6.25	W
Sacramento State	10/24	W 34-17	-14.5	W

Massachusetts

Opponent	Date	Result	Line	ATS
@ Rutgers	09/03	W 37-21	29.25	W
Sacred Heart	09/12	W 37-10	-23.5	W
Stonehill	09/19	W 36-14	-30.75	L
@ Sacramento State	09/26	W 35-6	-6	W
Eastern Michigan	10/03	L 14-38	-5.75	L
Miami (OH)	10/10	L 19-20	6	W
@ Buffalo	10/17	L 18-25	6.75	L
@ UConn	10/23	L 16-35	12.75	L

GAME CONTEXT

Home field: Massachusetts

Unavailable figures are shown as “Not collected.” Rankings are national ranks where supplied.