WEEKLY SLATE / CFB 2026

Week 10 - 11/03 thru 11/04

5 games / 10 teams

LeagueSeasonWeek

		TV						SOS A/H	Weather	Flags
Ohio6-2@ Akron1-7	Tue, 11/037:00 PM EST	TBA	----	--	--	88103	49118	11370	--	INJ 6
Buffalo5-3@ Miami (OH)5-3	Tue, 11/038:00 PM EST	TBA	----	--	--	11796	9278	93121	--	INJ 7
Central Michigan3-5vs Eastern Michigan4-5	Wed, 11/047:30 PM EST	TBA	----	--	--	133126	6990	22115	--	NEUINJ 4
Toledo6-2@ Sacramento State1-7	Wed, 11/047:00 PM EST	TBA	----	--	--	11132	4084	12687	--	INJ 12
Ball State3-5@ Massachusetts4-4	Wed, 11/047:00 PM EST	TBA	----	--	--	111113	12537	61120	--	INJ 7

Click a row for full analytics. Rank tiers by percentile of FBS teams: dark green top 18%, green 36%, gray 64%, orange 82%, red below. AP in gold. "--" = not collected.

Toledo vs Sacramento State / ESC TO CLOSE

Toledo vs Sacramento State: Week 10 Matchup Breakdown

MATCHUP ANALYSIS · Toledo vs Sacramento State

11/04 · 7:00 PM EST

Unranked

Toledo6-2AWAY

Unranked

Sacramento State1-7HOME

Point spreadNot collectedSource and update time not collected

Over / underNot collectedSource and update time not collected

Game-time weatherNot collectedWeather not collected · Source and update time not collected

Informational only · not an offer to wager · lines as of time not collected

OVERALL MATCHUP SUMMARYCLEAR STATISTICAL LEAN

Strong statistical edge: Toledo

Toledo has the stronger available statistical profile, led by scoring and rushing. Sacramento State's clearest counterpoint is schedule context. This describes the data, not a predicted winner.

Data coverageBroad95% of planned weight

How much of the comparison had usable stats. Not a win probability.

SampleToledo: 8 profile games · Sacramento State: 8 profile games8 of 9 factors scored

Toledo: injury report carried from 2026 Week 8; statuses have not been re-confirmed. Sacramento State: injury report carried from 2026 Week 8; statuses have not been re-confirmed.

When each team has the ball

Toledo offense

The clearest favorable comparison is points scored vs points allowed/game (Toledo #14 vs Sacramento State #126). No large opposing-defense rank gap appears in the comparable metrics.

Sacramento State offense

The clearest favorable comparison is red-zone score % (Sacramento State #83 vs Toledo #119). The main counterpoint is 20+ yard plays/game (Sacramento State #136 vs Toledo #46).

Key factors to watch

Scoring: Toledo has the stronger comparable profile. Points scored vs points allowed/game: Toledo offense #14 vs Sacramento State defense #126; Sacramento State offense #134 vs Toledo defense #83.
Rushing: Toledo has the stronger comparable profile. Rushing yards/game: Toledo offense #39 vs Sacramento State defense #108; Sacramento State offense #131 vs Toledo defense #51. Yards per carry (offense): Toledo 5 (#34); Sacramento State 3.4 (#125).
Passing: Toledo has the stronger comparable profile. Passing yards/game: Toledo offense #14 vs Sacramento State defense #42; Sacramento State offense #101 vs Toledo defense #45. Yards per attempt (offense): Toledo 8.7 (#21); Sacramento State 5.7 (#135).

Situational context

Toledo is 6-2 overall. Sacramento State is 1-7 overall.
Toledo is 2-1 on the road. Sacramento State is 1-3 at home.
Toledo: 11 days between games.
Toledo: previous opponent Western Michigan · 10/24 · home; next opponent Massachusetts · 11/11 · home. Sacramento State: previous opponent Ball State · 10/24 · away; next opponent Central Michigan · 11/11 · away.
Possession per game: Toledo 29:33; Sacramento State 29:04. Style context, not an automatic advantage.
Toledo: 2 out / season-ending / doubtful entries in the last available injury report; Sacramento State: 6 out / season-ending / doubtful entries in the last available injury report. No player-value adjustment is applied.

Driver breakdown8/9 SCORED

Scoringwt 20 · 1/1 metricsToledo
Toledo59Sacramento State
Points scored vs points allowed/game: Toledo offense #14 vs Sacramento State defense #126; Sacramento State offense #134 vs Toledo defense #83.
Rushingwt 15 · 2/2 metricsToledo
Toledo58Sacramento State
Rushing yards/game: Toledo offense #39 vs Sacramento State defense #108; Sacramento State offense #131 vs Toledo defense #51. Yards per carry (offense): Toledo 5 (#34); Sacramento State 3.4 (#125).
Passingwt 15 · 2/2 metricsToledo
Toledo48Sacramento State
Passing yards/game: Toledo offense #14 vs Sacramento State defense #42; Sacramento State offense #101 vs Toledo defense #45. Yards per attempt (offense): Toledo 8.7 (#21); Sacramento State 5.7 (#135).
Drive efficiencywt 15 · 3/3 metricsToledo
Toledo45Sacramento State
Third-down conversion %: Toledo offense #37 vs Sacramento State defense #102; Sacramento State offense #123 vs Toledo defense #45. Red-zone score %: Toledo offense #32 vs Sacramento State defense #99; Sacramento State offense #83 vs Toledo defense #119. Red-zone TD %: Toledo offense #15 vs Sacramento State defense #124; Sacramento State offense #133 vs Toledo defense #71.
Explosive playswt 10 · 1/1 metricsToledo
Toledo52Sacramento State
20+ yard plays/game: Toledo offense #39 vs Sacramento State defense #91; Sacramento State offense #136 vs Toledo defense #46.
Pass protection / pressurewt 10 · 1/1 metricsToledo
Toledo64Sacramento State
Sacks allowed (offense) vs sacks made (defense), per game: Toledo offense #9 vs Sacramento State defense #121; Sacramento State offense #80 vs Toledo defense #17.
Turnover marginwt 5 · 1/1 metricsToledo
Toledo50Sacramento State
Turnover margin (takeaways − giveaways): Toledo 0.1 (#66); Sacramento State -1.1 (#134).
Field-goal efficiencywt 5 · 0/1 metricsNot enough data
Not collected or not broadly ranked; no advantage is assigned.
Schedule contextwt 5 · 1/1 metricsSacramento State
Toledo-9Sacramento State
Opponents' combined win rate: Toledo 42.9%; Sacramento State 51.8%. This is a schedule proxy, not a full opponent adjustment.

Method and limitations

Limitations

Missing or narrowly covered metrics are excluded. Their weights are not redistributed to the remaining metrics.
Toledo: injury report carried from 2026 Week 8; statuses have not been re-confirmed.
Sacramento State: injury report carried from 2026 Week 8; statuses have not been re-confirmed.
Game-time weather not collected; no weather adjustment is applied.

How this is computed

Rules-based comparison of the existing public CFBD pre-week profiles and original injury/context notes, with NWS weather context. No new provider or AI requests.
Rank strength = (teams ranked − rank) / (teams ranked − 1). A metric needs values and ranks for both teams and coverage of at least 80% of the FBS population. Rank 1 is best, including defense allowed and sacks allowed.
For each offense/defense metric: [(away offense strength − home defense strength) − (home offense strength − away defense strength)] / 2. Efficiency-only metrics compare the two teams directly.
Related metrics share a group weight: rushing/passing yardage receives twice the weight of yards per carry/attempt. Third down receives half of drive efficiency; red-zone score and TD percentages share the other half.
Weights: scoring 20%; rushing 15%; passing 15%; drive efficiency 15%; explosive plays 10%; pressure/protection 10%; turnover margin 5%; field goals 5%; schedule context 5%. Schedule uses the difference in opponents’ combined win rates.
Net comparison index: 48.2 on a −100 to +100 scale (positive favors Toledo, negative Sacramento State). Missing weights stay neutral rather than being redistributed. This is not a probability, projected margin or betting model.
Overall call requires 55% of planned scoring weight and three games per team. Under 4 index points is even; 4+ slight; 12+ moderate requires 65% coverage and four games; 25+ strong requires 85% coverage and five games. Incomplete profile samples are not scored.
Record, venue splits, total offense/defense ranks and AP polls are not added again because they overlap existing evidence. Possession time is style context, not inherently better. Injuries, rest, rivalry and weather receive no invented numerical adjustments.
Schedule context is not a true opponent-adjusted rating. This heuristic has not been calibrated against outcomes. Odds are not inputs. Informational only; not a wagering recommendation.

Descriptive comparison of season stats only. The score has not been validated as a predictor and is not a forecast of the result.

TEAM PROFILE

Side by side

TIERS OF 138 FBS

Metric	Toledo	Sacramento State	Edge
Record	6-2	1-7	Toledo
SOS rank	#126	#87	Sacramento State
Offense rank	#11 476 ypg	#132 297.8 ypg	Toledo
Defense rank	#40 325.6 allowed	#84 371.5 allowed	Toledo
ATS	4-3-1	2-6-0	Toledo
Rest / last game	11d 10/24 · Western Michigan · H	Not collected 10/24 · Ball State · A	No call
Venue record (away / home)	2-1	1-3	Toledo
Next game	11/11 · Massachusetts · H	11/11 · Central Michigan · A	No call
Out / doubtful	2	6	Toledo
Season to date · completed games before this week · CFBD
Games in sample	8	8	—
Points / game	37.4 ppg·14 of 138	15.3 ppg·134 of 138	Toledo
Points allowed / game	25.4 ppg·83 of 138	32.9 ppg·126 of 138	Toledo
Rushing yards / game	187.9 yds·39 of 138	100.9 yds·131 of 138	Toledo
Yards / carry	5 yds·34 of 138	3.4 yds·125 of 138	Toledo
Passing yards / game	288.1 yds·14 of 138	196.9 yds·101 of 138	Toledo
Yards / pass attempt	8.7 yds·21 of 138	5.7 yds·135 of 138	Toledo
3rd-down conversions	44.2%·37 of 138	32.7%·123 of 138	Toledo
Red-zone scores	87.8%·32 of 138	81%·83 of 138	Toledo
Red-zone TDs	73.2%·15 of 138	38.1%·133 of 138	Toledo
Explosive plays (20+) / game	5·39 of 138	2.5·136 of 138	Toledo
Sacks made / game	2.8·17 of 138	1.1·121 of 138	Toledo
Sacks allowed / game	0.8·9 of 138	2·80 of 138	Toledo
Rush yards allowed / game	127.8 yds·51 of 138	177 yds·108 of 138	Toledo
Pass yards allowed / game	197.9 yds·45 of 138	194.5 yds·42 of 138	Sacramento State
3rd-down conv. allowed	35%·45 of 138	41.3%·102 of 138	Toledo
Red-zone scores allowed	88.5%·119 of 138	84.4%·99 of 138	Sacramento State
Red-zone TDs allowed	57.7%·71 of 138	71.9%·124 of 138	Toledo
Explosive plays allowed / game	3.5·46 of 138	4.4·91 of 138	Toledo
Turnover margin / game	+0.125·66 of 138	-1.125·134 of 138	Toledo
Time of possession	29:33·82 of 138	29:04·95 of 138	Toledo
Field goal %	Not collected	Not collected	No call

Offense vs Defense

OFFENSE VS OPPOSING DEFENSE

When Toledo has the ball

EDGE AT 15+ RANK GAP · #1 BEST

Toledo offenseSacramento State defense

37.4 ppg·14 of 138

ScoringOffense edge · 112 spots

32.9 ppg·126 of 138

187.9 yds·39 of 138

Rushing yards / gameOffense edge · 69 spots

177 yds·108 of 138

288.1 yds·14 of 138

Passing yards / gameOffense edge · 28 spots

194.5 yds·42 of 138

44.2%·37 of 138

Third downOffense edge · 65 spots

41.3%·102 of 138

87.8%·32 of 138

Red-zone scoreOffense edge · 67 spots

84.4%·99 of 138

73.2%·15 of 138

Red-zone TDOffense edge · 109 spots

71.9%·124 of 138

5·39 of 138

Explosive plays (20+)Offense edge · 52 spots

4.4·91 of 138

0.8·9 of 138

Sacks allowed vs sacks madeOffense edge · 112 spots

1.1·121 of 138

OFFENSE VS OPPOSING DEFENSE

When Sacramento State has the ball

EDGE AT 15+ RANK GAP · #1 BEST

Sacramento State offenseToledo defense

15.3 ppg·134 of 138

ScoringDefense edge · 51 spots

25.4 ppg·83 of 138

100.9 yds·131 of 138

Rushing yards / gameDefense edge · 80 spots

127.8 yds·51 of 138

196.9 yds·101 of 138

Passing yards / gameDefense edge · 56 spots

197.9 yds·45 of 138

32.7%·123 of 138

Third downDefense edge · 78 spots

35%·45 of 138

81%·83 of 138

Red-zone scoreOffense edge · 36 spots

88.5%·119 of 138

38.1%·133 of 138

Red-zone TDDefense edge · 62 spots

57.7%·71 of 138

2.5·136 of 138

Explosive plays (20+)Defense edge · 90 spots

3.5·46 of 138

2·80 of 138

Sacks allowed vs sacks madeDefense edge · 63 spots

2.8·17 of 138

Pace & Pressure

Time of possession / game: Toledo: 29:33·82 of 138; Sacramento State: 29:04·95 of 138
Defensive sacks made / game: Toledo: 2.8·17 of 138; Sacramento State: 1.1·121 of 138
Offensive sacks allowed / game: Toledo: 0.8·9 of 138; Sacramento State: 2·80 of 138

Red Zone

Offensive red-zone score rate: Toledo: 87.8%·32 of 138; Sacramento State: 81%·83 of 138
Defensive red-zone score rate allowed: Toledo: 88.5%·119 of 138; Sacramento State: 84.4%·99 of 138
Offensive red-zone touchdown rate: Toledo: 73.2%·15 of 138; Sacramento State: 38.1%·133 of 138
Defensive red-zone touchdown rate allowed: Toledo: 57.7%·71 of 138; Sacramento State: 71.9%·124 of 138

AUTO-DETECTED CONTEXT

Flags

5 FLAGS

TURNOVER-UNLUCKY · Sacramento State averages -1.125 turnover margin per game.
MISMATCH · Toledo offense has a 73-rank edge against Sacramento State defense.
WALL · Toledo defense has a 92-rank edge against Sacramento State offense.
RECORD TRAP · Toledo's strong record came against a bottom-30% schedule.
QB ALERT · Sacramento State has an out or doubtful quarterback listed.

ToledoRest: 11 daysNext: 11/11 · Massachusetts · H

Sacramento StateRest: Not collectedNext: 11/11 · Central Michigan · A

PLAYER AVAILABILITY

Key injuries

12 LISTED

Toledo: Carried forward from 2026 Week 8 — awaiting a Week 10 update. Statuses have not been re-confirmed.

Sacramento State: Carried forward from 2026 Week 8 — awaiting a Week 10 update. Statuses have not been re-confirmed.

Team	Player	Pos	Status	Detail
Toledo	R. Bond	WR	Questionable	Undisclosed (Covers, 10/18) Source
Toledo	C. Smith	RB	Questionable	Undisclosed (Covers, 10/17) Source
Toledo	K. Gilbert Jr.; T. Jones	WR/WR	Out	Undisclosed; no timetable Source
Toledo	T. Kelleher	TE	Out	Undisclosed; undetermined length Source
Sacramento State	Carson Conklin	QB	Out	Opening-day starter; broken bone in throwing arm in the opener, hasn't returned Source
Sacramento State	Jackson Sharman	QB	Questionable	Current starter; left Ohio game after a hard hit, no official status (Brian Salazar Jr. finished) Source
Sacramento State	K. Peevy	WR	Out	Undisclosed; extended absence Source
Sacramento State	A. Bryant	WR	Out	Undisclosed Source
Sacramento State	C. Borders	RB	Out	Undisclosed Source
Sacramento State	B. Collins	RB	Out	Undisclosed; extended absence Source
Sacramento State	E. Huddle	TE	Out	Undisclosed Source
Sacramento State	J. Williams	TE	Questionable	Undisclosed Source

Toledo: WR depth is hit: WRs K. Gilbert Jr. and T. Jones are out and WR R. Bond is questionable. RB C. Smith is also questionable.

Sacramento State: QB1 Carson Conklin has been out since the opener; fill-in QB Jackson Sharman left the Ohio game hurt and his status is unclear; several WR/RB are out.

SCHEDULE CONTEXT

Previous opponents

FULL SEASON

Toledo

Opponent	Date	Result	Line	ATS
@ Michigan State	09/04	L 20-30	10	P
Central Connecticut	09/12	W 63-10	-36.5	W
Temple	09/19	W 49-48	-4.75	L
San Diego State	09/26	W 41-16	-2.75	W
@ Ball State	10/03	W 39-24	-20.75	L
Buffalo	10/10	L 8-23	-18.75	L
@ Eastern Michigan	10/17	W 34-14	-7.25	W
Western Michigan	10/24	W 45-38	-2.5	W

Sacramento State

Opponent	Date	Result	Line	ATS
@ Eastern Michigan	08/29	L 17-28	9.25	L
Mississippi Valley State	09/05	W 52-0	-38.5	W
@ Fresno State	09/12	L 3-49	18	L
North Dakota State	09/19	L 10-31	25.5	W
Massachusetts	09/26	L 6-35	6	L
@ Bowling Green	10/10	L 10-38	9.5	L
Ohio	10/17	L 7-48	16.5	L
@ Ball State	10/24	L 17-34	14.5	L

GAME CONTEXT

Home field: Sacramento State

Unavailable figures are shown as “Not collected.” Rankings are national ranks where supplied.