WEEKLY SLATE / CFB 2026

Week 11 - 11/10 thru 11/12

8 games / 16 teams

LeagueSeasonWeek

	Score		TV						Opp win% A/H	SOS A/H · FPI	SOR A/H · FPI	Weather	Flags
Kent State3-6@ Bowling Green2-7	——	Tue, 11/107:00 PM EST	ESPNU	----	--	--	135136	7091	8069	6397	124133	OK53F / 6 mph	INJ 5
Western Michigan6-3@ Akron1-8	——	Tue, 11/107:00 PM EST	CBSSN	----	--	--	120102	66120	10053	10591	75136	OK52F / 3 mph	INJ 6
Ohio7-2@ Miami (OH)5-4	——	Tue, 11/108:00 PM EST	ESPN2 / ESPN	----	--	--	8092	4576	132119	113111	6788	OK48F / 2 mph	INJ 3
Buffalo6-3@ Ball State3-5	——	Wed, 11/11Time TBA	TBA	----	--	--	117110	90126	9471	11248	90111	OK42F / 0 mph	INJ 11
Massachusetts4-4@ Toledo6-2	——	Wed, 11/11Time TBA	TBA	----	--	--	11410	3638	127121	138135	11973	OK43F / 2 mph	INJ 4
Sacramento State2-7@ Central Michigan3-5	——	Wed, 11/117:30 PM EST	ESPNU	----	--	--	132133	7368	9517	13671	137114	--	INJ 4
Memphis7-2@ South Florida6-2	——	Thu, 11/128:00 PM EST	ESPN	----	--	--	4129	8824	78123	107132	4972	--
Louisiana5-3@ UL Monroe1-7	——	Thu, 11/129:00 PM EST	ESPN2	----	--	--	71116	31131	8974	99122	84135	--	INJ 12

Click a row for full analytics. Rank tiers by percentile of FBS teams: dark green top 18%, green 36%, gray 64%, orange 82%, red below. AP in gold. "--" = not collected.

Memphis vs South Florida / ESC TO CLOSE

Memphis vs South Florida: Week 11 Matchup Breakdown

MATCHUP ANALYSIS · Memphis vs South Florida

11/12 · 8:00 PM EST · ESPN

Unranked

Memphis7-2AWAY

Unranked

South Florida6-2HOME

Point spreadNot collectedSource and update time not collected

Over / underNot collectedSource and update time not collected

Game-time weatherNot collectedWeather not collected · Source and update time not collected

Informational only · not an offer to wager · lines as of time not collected

OVERALL MATCHUP SUMMARYSLIGHT STATISTICAL LEAN

Slight statistical edge: Memphis

Memphis has the stronger available statistical profile, led by passing and rushing. No strong counter-edge appears in the scored groups; that does not imply the opponent has no path to a competitive game. This describes the data, not a predicted winner.

Data coverageBroad95% of planned weight

How much of the comparison had usable stats. Not a win probability.

SampleMemphis: 9 profile games · South Florida: 8 profile games8 of 9 factors scored

Memphis: injury report carried from 2026 Week 9; statuses have not been re-confirmed. South Florida: injury report carried from 2026 Week 10; statuses have not been re-confirmed.

When Each Team Has the Ball

Memphis offense

In the passing game, Memphis' passing offense (#11) lines up against South Florida's pass defense (#22). It pairs two top-30% units, and both bring a strong season-long record into this area.

South Florida's rush defense (#49) draws Memphis' rushing offense (#10). Memphis' offense holds the better ranking here, though the gap is not large.

By contrast, here Memphis' pass protection (#57) goes up against South Florida's pass rush (#39). South Florida's defense has the stronger ranking here, which could limit Memphis' offense in this area.

With the focus on the third-down battle, Memphis' third-down offense (#26) faces South Florida's third-down defense (#43). Memphis' offense ranks ahead of this defense, a modest statistical edge.

Memphis' red-zone touchdown offense (#76) meets South Florida's red-zone touchdown defense (#10). South Florida's defense holds a large ranking advantage, which could slow Memphis' offense in this area.

No Statistical Edge

South Florida offense

In the passing game, South Florida's passing offense (#128) lines up against Memphis' pass defense (#36). Memphis' defense has a major statistical advantage here and could make this part of South Florida's offense difficult to sustain.

By contrast, against Memphis' rush defense (#121), South Florida's rushing offense (#80) faces a direct test. The rank gap gives South Florida's offense a favorable statistical matchup.

South Florida's pass protection (#77) meets Memphis' pass rush (#48). A moderate ranking edge sits with Memphis' defense in this area.

Against Memphis' red-zone scoring defense (#20), South Florida's red-zone scoring offense (#1) faces a direct test. Each side sits in the top 30% of the rankings, so a proven unit meets another proven unit.

With the focus on the third-down battle, South Florida's third-down offense (#66) faces Memphis' third-down defense (#12). Memphis' defense ranks ahead of this offense, a modest statistical edge.

Red-zone scoring counts any score (touchdown or field goal), not touchdown rate alone.

Slight Edge: Memphis

Key Factors to Watch

Scoring
Memphis scoring offense #15 vs South Florida scoring defense #10 (ranks essentially even).
South Florida scoring offense #75 vs Memphis scoring defense #59 (defense ranks higher).
These ranks compare points scored per game versus points allowed per game.
No Statistical Edge
Passing
Memphis passing offense #11 vs South Florida pass defense #22 (offense ranks higher).
South Florida passing offense #128 vs Memphis pass defense #36 (defense ranks higher).
These ranks compare passing yards gained per game versus passing yards allowed per game.
Yards per attempt: Memphis 9.7 (#5) vs South Florida 6.8 (#97), 2.9 yards per attempt more for Memphis.
Edge: Memphis
Rushing
Memphis rushing offense #10 vs South Florida rush defense #49 (offense ranks higher).
South Florida rushing offense #80 vs Memphis rush defense #121 (offense ranks higher).
These ranks compare rushing yards gained per game versus rushing yards allowed per game.
Yards per carry: Memphis 5.4 (#11) vs South Florida 4.3 (#74), 1.1 yards per carry more for Memphis.
Slight Edge: Memphis
Pass protection / pressure
Memphis pass protection #57 vs South Florida pass rush #39 (defense ranks higher).
South Florida pass protection #77 vs Memphis pass rush #48 (defense ranks higher).
These ranks compare sacks allowed per game versus sacks made per game; rank 1 is best for both.
No Statistical Edge

Situational Context

Memphis is 7-2 overall. South Florida is 6-2 overall.
Memphis is 2-2 on the road. South Florida is 4-1 at home.
Memphis: 12 days between games. South Florida: 12 days between games.
Memphis: previous opponent Army · 10/31 · home; next opponent Navy · 11/21 · away. South Florida: previous opponent UAB · 10/31 · home; next opponent Florida Atlantic · 11/21 · away.
Possession per game: Memphis 28:57; South Florida 28:41. Style context, not an automatic advantage.
Memphis: 0 out / season-ending / doubtful entries in the last available injury report; South Florida: 0 out / season-ending / doubtful entries in the last available injury report. No player-value adjustment is applied.

Driver Breakdown8/9 SCORED

Scoringwt 20 · 1/1 metricsNo clear edge
Memphis4South Florida
Rushingwt 15 · 2/2 metricsMemphis
Memphis15South Florida
Passingwt 15 · 2/2 metricsMemphis
Memphis47South Florida
Drive efficiencywt 15 · 3/3 metricsNo clear edge
Memphis1South Florida
Memphis third-down offense #26 vs South Florida third-down defense #43 (offense ranks higher).
South Florida third-down offense #66 vs Memphis third-down defense #12 (defense ranks higher).
These ranks compare third-down conversion rate versus the rate allowed to opponents.
Memphis red-zone scoring offense #91 vs South Florida red-zone scoring defense #37 (defense ranks higher).
South Florida red-zone scoring offense #1 vs Memphis red-zone scoring defense #20 (offense ranks higher).
These ranks compare the share of red-zone trips ending in any score (touchdown or field goal), not touchdown rate alone.
Memphis red-zone touchdown offense #76 vs South Florida red-zone touchdown defense #10 (defense ranks higher).
South Florida red-zone touchdown offense #84 vs Memphis red-zone touchdown defense #75 (ranks essentially even).
These ranks compare the share of red-zone trips ending in a touchdown versus the rate allowed to opponents.
Explosive playswt 10 · 1/1 metricsMemphis
Memphis9South Florida
Memphis big-play offense #26 vs South Florida big-play defense #25 (ranks essentially even).
South Florida big-play offense #117 vs Memphis big-play defense #91 (defense ranks higher).
These ranks compare 20+ yard plays made per game versus 20+ yard plays allowed per game.
Pass protection / pressurewt 10 · 1/1 metricsNo clear edge
Memphis4South Florida
Turnover marginwt 5 · 1/1 metricsNo clear edge
Memphis-6South Florida
Turnover margin: Memphis 0.6 (#29) vs South Florida 0.6 (#21), essentially even.
Field-goal efficiencywt 5 · 0/1 metricsNot enough data
Not collected or not broadly ranked; no advantage is assigned.
Schedule contextwt 5 · 1/1 metricsMemphis
Memphis8South Florida
Opponents' combined win rate: Memphis 53.1%; South Florida 44.8%. This is a schedule proxy, not a full opponent adjustment.

Method and Limitations

Limitations

Missing or narrowly covered metrics are excluded. Their weights are not redistributed to the remaining metrics.
Memphis: injury report carried from 2026 Week 9; statuses have not been re-confirmed.
South Florida: injury report carried from 2026 Week 10; statuses have not been re-confirmed.
Game-time weather not collected; no weather adjustment is applied.

How This Is Computed

Rules-based comparison of the existing public CFBD pre-week profiles and original injury/context notes, with NWS weather context. No new provider or AI requests.
Rank strength = (teams ranked − rank) / (teams ranked − 1). A metric needs values and ranks for both teams and coverage of at least 80% of the FBS population. Rank 1 is best, including defense allowed and sacks allowed.
For each offense/defense metric: [(away offense strength − home defense strength) − (home offense strength − away defense strength)] / 2. Efficiency-only metrics compare the two teams directly.
Related metrics share a group weight: rushing/passing yardage receives twice the weight of yards per carry/attempt. Third down receives half of drive efficiency; red-zone score and TD percentages share the other half.
Weights: scoring 20%; rushing 15%; passing 15%; drive efficiency 15%; explosive plays 10%; pressure/protection 10%; turnover margin 5%; field goals 5%; schedule context 5%. Schedule uses the difference in opponents’ combined win rates.
Net comparison index: 11.7 on a −100 to +100 scale (positive favors Memphis, negative South Florida). Missing weights stay neutral rather than being redistributed. This is not a probability, projected margin or betting model.
Overall call requires 55% of planned scoring weight and three games per team. Under 4 index points is even; 4+ slight; 12+ moderate requires 65% coverage and four games; 25+ strong requires 85% coverage and five games. Incomplete profile samples are not scored.
Record, venue splits, total offense/defense ranks and AP polls are not added again because they overlap existing evidence. Possession time is style context, not inherently better. Injuries, rest, rivalry and weather receive no invented numerical adjustments.
Schedule context is not a true opponent-adjusted rating. This heuristic has not been calibrated against outcomes. Odds are not inputs. Informational only; not a wagering recommendation.

Descriptive comparison of season stats only. The score has not been validated as a predictor and is not a forecast of the result.

Stats through Week 9 · Data: CollegeFootballData.com

TEAM PROFILE

Side-by-Side

TIERS OF 138 FBS

Metric	Memphis	South Florida	Edge
Record	7-2	6-2	Memphis
Opponent win percentage rank	#78 53.1% opponent win rate	#123 44.8% opponent win rate	Memphis
SOS rank · ESPN FPI via CFBD	#107 As of 11/04, 4:43 PM EST	#132 As of 11/04, 4:43 PM EST	Memphis
SOR rank · ESPN FPI via CFBD	#49 As of 11/04, 4:43 PM EST	#72 As of 11/04, 4:43 PM EST	Memphis
Offense rank	#4 514.0 ypg	#129 314.6 ypg	Memphis
Defense rank	#88 377.0 ypg allowed	#24 306.6 ypg allowed	South Florida
ATS	5-4-0	4-4-0	Memphis
Rest / last game	12 d 10/31 · Army · H	12 d 10/31 · UAB · H	Even
Venue record (away / home)	2-2	4-1	South Florida
Next game	11/21 · Navy · A	11/21 · Florida Atlantic · A	No call
Out / doubtful	0	0	Even
Season to date · completed games before this week · CFBD
Games in sample	9	8	—
Points / game	37.6 ppg15 of 138	27.0 ppg75 of 138	Memphis
Points allowed / game	23.6 ppg59 of 138	14.5 ppg10 of 138	South Florida
Rushing yards / game	223.4 yds10 of 138	148.0 yds80 of 138	Memphis
Yards / carry	5.4 yds11 of 138	4.3 yds74 of 138	Memphis
Passing yards / game	290.6 yds11 of 138	166.6 yds128 of 138	Memphis
Yards / pass attempt	9.7 yds5 of 138	6.8 yds97 of 138	Memphis
3rd-down conversions	46.4%26 of 138	40.2%66 of 138	Memphis
Red-zone scores	80.4%91 of 138	96.2%1 of 138	South Florida
Red-zone TDs	58.7%76 of 138	57.7%84 of 138	Memphis
Field goal %	Not collected	Not collected	Not enough data
Explosive plays (20+) / game	5.326 of 138	3.3117 of 138	Memphis
Sacks made / game	2.348 of 138	2.439 of 138	South Florida
Sacks allowed / game	1.857 of 138	2.077 of 138	Memphis
Rush yards allowed / game	187.9 yds121 of 138	128.3 yds49 of 138	South Florida
Pass yards allowed / game	189.1 yds36 of 138	178.4 yds22 of 138	South Florida
3rd-down conv. allowed	30.8%12 of 138	35.1%43 of 138	Memphis
Red-zone scores allowed	72.4%20 of 138	75.0%37 of 138	Memphis
Red-zone TDs allowed	58.6%75 of 138	40.0%10 of 138	South Florida
Explosive plays allowed / game	4.491 of 138	3.125 of 138	South Florida
Turnover margin / game	0.629 of 138	0.621 of 138	South Florida
Time of possession	28:5798 of 138	28:41106 of 138	Memphis

Historical Matchup

Historical matchup not collected

Key Player Comparison

Memphis

QBMarcus StokesQB1Last played wk 9
2532 Pass yds25 TD6 INT281.3 ypg Yds/g74 Car267 Rush yds3 TD29.7 ypg Yds/g
RBJaylin CarterRBLast played wk 9
151 Car929 Rush yds10 TD103.2 ypg Yds/g14 Rec123 Rec yds1 TD
RBManny CoveyRBLast played wk 9
77 Car418 Rush yds0 TD46.4 ypg Yds/g3 Rec27 Rec yds0 TD
WRJermane HayesReceiverLast played wk 9
37 Rec452 Rec yds5 TD
TEHunter TiptonReceiverLast played wk 9
35 Rec495 Rec yds5 TD
WRStonka BurnsideReceiverLast played wk 9
29 Rec453 Rec yds3 TD
LBMike MontgomeryLeading tacklerLast played wk 9
66 Tkl0 Sacks0 INT2 PD
DLElijah KinslerSack leaderLast played wk 9
36 Tkl5.50 Sacks0 INT1 PD
SDylan SmithINT / passes-defended leaderLast played wk 9
40 Tkl0 Sacks3 INT3 PD
PKPhilippe LaforgeKickerLast played wk 9
10 FGM13 FGA76.9%% FG%44 Long44 XPM44 XPA

South Florida

QBMichael Van Buren Jr.QB1Last played wk 9
1273 Pass yds6 TD0 INT159.1 ypg Yds/g52 Car100 Rush yds2 TD12.5 ypg Yds/g
RBD.J. CrowtherRBLast played wk 9
121 Car578 Rush yds7 TD72.3 ypg Yds/g9 Rec100 Rec yds1 TD
RBJason Collins Jr.RBLast played wk 9
52 Car244 Rush yds2 TD30.5 ypg Yds/g6 Rec32 Rec yds0 TD
WRBryson RodgersReceiverLast played wk 9
33 Rec345 Rec yds2 TD
WRJoshua PorterReceiverLast played wk 9
23 Rec274 Rec yds2 TD
WRCameron SeldonReceiverLast played wk 9
14 Rec186 Rec yds1 TD
DBAyden JacksonLeading tacklerLast played wk 9
42 Tkl1 Sacks0 INT4 PD
DEC.J. HicksSack leaderLast played wk 9
26 Tkl5 Sacks0 INT2 PD
STavin WardINT / passes-defended leaderLast played wk 9
39 Tkl0 Sacks1 INT1 PD
PKNico GramaticaKickerLast played wk 9
13 FGM16 FGA81.3%% FG%53 Long25 XPM25 XPA

Player data: CollegeFootballData.com (saved data only). Uploaded summaries take precedence over automatic selections; missing periods are marked Not collected.

POSSESSION MATCHUPS

Offense vs. Defense Comparison

2 POSSESSIONS

OFFENSE VS OPPOSING DEFENSE

When Memphis has the ball

EDGE AT 15+ RANK GAP · #1 BEST

Memphis offenseSouth Florida defense

37.6 ppg15 of 138

ScoringNo edge

14.5 ppg10 of 138

223.4 yds10 of 138

Rushing yards / gameOffense edge · 39 spots

128.3 yds49 of 138

290.6 yds11 of 138

Passing yards / gameNo edge

178.4 yds22 of 138

46.4%26 of 138

Third downOffense edge · 17 spots

35.1%43 of 138

80.4%91 of 138

Red-zone scoreDefense edge · 54 spots

75.0%37 of 138

58.7%76 of 138

Red-zone TDDefense edge · 66 spots

40.0%10 of 138

5.326 of 138

Explosive plays (20+)No edge

3.125 of 138

1.857 of 138

Sacks allowed vs sacks madeDefense edge · 18 spots

2.439 of 138

OFFENSE VS OPPOSING DEFENSE

When South Florida has the ball

EDGE AT 15+ RANK GAP · #1 BEST

South Florida offenseMemphis defense

27.0 ppg75 of 138

ScoringDefense edge · 16 spots

23.6 ppg59 of 138

148.0 yds80 of 138

Rushing yards / gameOffense edge · 41 spots

187.9 yds121 of 138

166.6 yds128 of 138

Passing yards / gameDefense edge · 92 spots

189.1 yds36 of 138

40.2%66 of 138

Third downDefense edge · 54 spots

30.8%12 of 138

96.2%1 of 138

Red-zone scoreOffense edge · 19 spots

72.4%20 of 138

57.7%84 of 138

Red-zone TDNo edge

58.6%75 of 138

3.3117 of 138

Explosive plays (20+)Defense edge · 26 spots

4.491 of 138

2.077 of 138

Sacks allowed vs sacks madeDefense edge · 29 spots

2.348 of 138

SEASON PROFILE

Pace & Pressure

3 METRICS

Time of possession / game: Memphis 28:5798 of 138; South Florida 28:41106 of 138
Defensive sacks made / game: Memphis 2.348 of 138; South Florida 2.439 of 138
Offensive sacks allowed / game: Memphis 1.857 of 138; South Florida 2.077 of 138

SEASON PROFILE

Red Zone

5 METRICS

Offensive red-zone score rate: Memphis 80.4%91 of 138; South Florida 96.2%1 of 138
Defensive red-zone score rate allowed: Memphis 72.4%20 of 138; South Florida 75.0%37 of 138
Offensive red-zone touchdown rate: Memphis 58.7%76 of 138; South Florida 57.7%84 of 138
Defensive red-zone touchdown rate allowed: Memphis 58.6%75 of 138; South Florida 40.0%10 of 138
Field-goal accuracy: Memphis Not collected; South Florida Not collected

SPECIAL TEAMS · CFBD

Team Kicking

2 TEAMS

Memphis: Field goals (FGM/FGA): Not collected; Field-goal accuracy: Not collected; Longest field goal: Not collected; Extra points (XPM/XPA): Not collected
South Florida: Field goals (FGM/FGA): Not collected; Field-goal accuracy: Not collected; Longest field goal: Not collected; Extra points (XPM/XPA): Not collected

AUTO-DETECTED CONTEXT

Flags

1 FLAGS

RECORD TRAP · South Florida's strong record came against opponents ranked in the bottom 30% by combined win rate.

MemphisRest: 12 daysNext: 11/21 · Navy · A

South FloridaRest: 12 daysNext: 11/21 · Florida Atlantic · A

PLAYER AVAILABILITY

Key Injuries

0 LISTED

Memphis: Carried forward from 2026 Week 9 — awaiting a Week 11 update. Statuses have not been re-confirmed.

South Florida: Carried forward from 2026 Week 10 — awaiting a Week 11 update. Statuses have not been re-confirmed.

No individual injuries supplied for either team.

Memphis: No injuries reported in this week's coverage (Huff presser recap, Oct 29); stale Oct 17 Covers WR entry dropped. Starting QB not confirmed in any source read.

South Florida: No current-week report found as of 11/4/2026 (Covers blocked; no AAC report or beat-site injury news found).

SCHEDULE CONTEXT

Previous Opponents

FULL SEASON

Memphis

Opponent	Date	Result	Line	ATS
@ UNLV	08/29	W 27-21	4.75	W
Arkansas State	09/05	W 42-24	-10.5	W
@ Boise State	09/12	L 20-38	9.25	L
UT Martin	09/19	W 45-21	-33.5	L
@ Charlotte	10/03	W 59-8	-19.5	W
UAB	10/10	W 38-13	-15.25	W
@ Tulane	10/16	L 17-31	-6.5	L
East Carolina	10/22	W 41-34	-10.5	L
Army	10/31	W 49-22	-6	W

South Florida

Opponent	Date	Result	Line	ATS
Florida International	09/05	W 19-9	-14.5	L
@ Army	09/12	W 28-24	3	W
Delaware State	09/19	W 59-17	-37.5	W
@ Bowling Green	09/26	W 14-6	-17.75	L
Temple	10/03	L 13-17	-5.5	L
@ UTSA	10/08	L 24-31	5.5	L
Kent State	10/17	W 29-2	-20.5	W
UAB	10/31	W 30-10	-7.5	W

Game Context

GAME CONTEXT

Home field: South Florida

Memphis travel

Home base: Time zone not collected. Game-venue time-zone comparison not collected.

Travel is context only, not a statistical advantage.

Unavailable figures are shown as “Not collected.” Rankings are national ranks where supplied.