WEEKLY SLATE / CFB 2026

Week 12 - 11/17 thru 11/18

5 games / 10 teams

LeagueSeasonWeek

Rankings: CFP (Nov 10)

Tuesday, November 173 games

Wednesday, November 182 games

	Score		TV						Opp win% A/H	SOS A/H · FPI	SOR A/H · FPI	Weather	Flags
Ball State3-6@ Ohio7-3	——	Tue 11/17 · 7:00 PM ET	TBA	----	--	--	112 81	127 47	73 134	64 121	117 64	--	INJ 7
Eastern Michigan4-6@ Western Michigan7-3	——	Tue 11/17 · 7:00 PM ET	TBA	----	--	--	131 119	95 67	116 124	118 107	123 71	--
Miami (OH)6-4@ Kent State3-7	——	Tue 11/17 · 7:00 PM ET	TBA	----	--	--	97 135	86 71	101 108	116 65	101 118	--	INJ 7
Akron1-9@ Massachusetts5-4	——	Wed 11/18 · 7:00 PM ET	TBA	----	--	--	99 106	116 37	51 137	94 138	136 114	--	INJ 6
Central Michigan4-5@ Buffalo6-3	——	Wed 11/18 · 7:30 PM ET	TBA	----	--	--	130 107	45 80	32 61	74 114	105 81	--	INJ 8

Click a row for full analytics. Rank tiers by percentile of FBS teams: dark green top 18%, green 36%, gray 64%, orange 82%, red below. AP in gold. "--" = not collected.

Central Michigan vs Buffalo / ESC TO CLOSE

Central Michigan vs Buffalo: Week 12 Matchup Breakdown

MATCHUP ANALYSIS · Central Michigan vs Buffalo

Wed 11/18 · 7:30 PM ET

Switch game · Week 12

Unranked

Central Michigan4-5AWAY

Unranked

Buffalo6-3HOME

Point spreadNot collectedSource and update time not collected

Over / under--Source and update time not collected

Game-time weatherNot collectedWeather not collected · Source and update time not collected

Informational only · not an offer to wager · lines as of time not collected

OVERALL MATCHUP SUMMARYPROFILES LOOK EVEN

No clear overall statistical advantage

The weighted comparisons do not separate these teams clearly. Individual strengths can still matter, but the available evidence does not support a clear overall edge.

Data coverageBroad95% of planned weight

How much of the comparison had usable stats. Not a win probability.

SampleCentral Michigan: 9 profile games · Buffalo: 9 profile games8 of 9 factors scored

Central Michigan: injury report carried from 2026 Week 8; statuses have not been re-confirmed. Buffalo: injury report carried from 2026 Week 8; statuses have not been re-confirmed.

When Each Team Has the Ball

Central Michigan offense vs. Buffalo defense

Passing Offense

Central Michigan's passing offense (#134) goes up against Buffalo's pass defense (#75).

Slight Advantage: Buffalo

Rushing Offense

Central Michigan's rushing offense (#41) faces Buffalo's run defense (#85).

Slight Advantage: Central Michigan

Pass Protection

Central Michigan's pass protection (#87) meets Buffalo's pass rush (#80).

No Edge

Red Zone Offense

Central Michigan's red-zone offense (#29) against Buffalo's red-zone defense (#48).

No Edge

Red-zone scoring counts any score (touchdown or field goal), not touchdown rate alone.

Third Down Offense

Central Michigan's third-down offense (#95) takes on Buffalo's third-down defense (#44).

Slight Advantage: Buffalo

Overall

Slight Edge: Buffalo

Buffalo offense vs. Central Michigan defense

Passing Offense

Buffalo's passing offense (#121) goes up against Central Michigan's pass defense (#12).

Heavy Advantage: Central Michigan

Rushing Offense

Buffalo's rushing offense (#52) faces Central Michigan's run defense (#96).

Slight Advantage: Buffalo

Pass Protection

Buffalo's pass protection (#79) meets Central Michigan's pass rush (#92).

No Edge

Red Zone Offense

Buffalo's red-zone offense (#78) against Central Michigan's red-zone defense (#82).

No Edge

Red-zone scoring counts any score (touchdown or field goal), not touchdown rate alone.

Third Down Offense

Buffalo's third-down offense (#82) takes on Central Michigan's third-down defense (#129).

Slight Advantage: Buffalo

Overall

Slight Edge: Central Michigan

Situational Context

Overall Record: Central Michigan is 4-5 overall. Buffalo is 6-3 overall.
Game Context: Central Michigan is 0-3 on the road. Buffalo is 4-1 at home.
Rest: Central Michigan: 14 days between games (Off a bye). Buffalo: 15 days between games (Off a bye).
Previous and Next Opponents:
- Central Michigan: previous opponent Eastern Michigan, 11/04 (neutral); next opponent Ball State, 11/28 (away)
- Buffalo: previous opponent Miami (OH), 11/03 (away); next opponent Akron, 11/27 (away)
Time of Possession: Central Michigan 30:34; Buffalo 30:19 (style context, not an automatic advantage)
Injuries: Central Michigan: 1 out, 0 season-ending, 0 doubtful (last available report). Buffalo: 1 out, 1 season-ending, 0 doubtful (last available report). No player-value adjustment is applied.

Driver Breakdown8/9 SCORED

ScoringShare of the overall summary this category carries.No Edge
- Central Michigan's scoring offense (#123) vs. Buffalo's scoring defense (#79)
- Buffalo's scoring offense (#97) vs. Central Michigan's scoring defense (#62)
No Edge
Central MichiganNet rank gap: the average distance, in league rank places, between each offense and the defense it faces in this category. +4.5 means Buffalo are favored by 4.5 places on average. Thresholds: Slight 43, Moderate 60, Clear 78, Heavy 91 (CFB).Buffalo
RushingShare of the overall summary this category carries.No Edge
- Central Michigan's rushing offense (#41) vs. Buffalo's run defense (#85)
- Buffalo's rushing offense (#52) vs. Central Michigan's run defense (#96)
- Central Michigan yards per carry 4.5 (#51) vs. Buffalo 4.1 (#85)
No Edge
Central MichiganNet rank gap: the average distance, in league rank places, between each offense and the defense it faces in this category. +11.3 means Central Michigan are favored by 11.3 places on average. Thresholds: Slight 43, Moderate 60, Clear 78, Heavy 91 (CFB).Buffalo
PassingShare of the overall summary this category carries.No Edge
- Central Michigan's passing offense (#134) vs. Buffalo's pass defense (#75)
- Buffalo's passing offense (#121) vs. Central Michigan's pass defense (#12)
- Central Michigan yards per attempt 5.9 (#133) vs. Buffalo 5.5 (#138)
No Edge
Central MichiganNet rank gap: the average distance, in league rank places, between each offense and the defense it faces in this category. +18.3 means Central Michigan are favored by 18.3 places on average. Thresholds: Slight 43, Moderate 60, Clear 78, Heavy 91 (CFB).Buffalo
Drive efficiencyShare of the overall summary this category carries.No Edge
- Central Michigan's third-down offense (#95) vs. Buffalo's third-down defense (#44)
- Buffalo's third-down offense (#82) vs. Central Michigan's third-down defense (#129)
- Central Michigan's red-zone scoring offense (#29) vs. Buffalo's red-zone scoring defense (#48)
- Buffalo's red-zone scoring offense (#78) vs. Central Michigan's red-zone scoring defense (#82)
- Central Michigan's red-zone touchdown offense (#8) vs. Buffalo's red-zone touchdown defense (#84)
- Buffalo's red-zone touchdown offense (#114) vs. Central Michigan's red-zone touchdown defense (#129)
No Edge
Central MichiganNet rank gap: the average distance, in league rank places, between each offense and the defense it faces in this category. +3.7 means Buffalo are favored by 3.7 places on average. Thresholds: Slight 43, Moderate 60, Clear 78, Heavy 91 (CFB).Buffalo
Explosive playsShare of the overall summary this category carries.No Edge
- Central Michigan's big-play offense (#131) vs. Buffalo's big-play defense (#51)
- Buffalo's big-play offense (#106) vs. Central Michigan's big-play defense (#57)
No Edge
Central MichiganNet rank gap: the average distance, in league rank places, between each offense and the defense it faces in this category. +15.5 means Buffalo are favored by 15.5 places on average. Thresholds: Slight 43, Moderate 60, Clear 78, Heavy 91 (CFB).Buffalo
Pass protection / pressureShare of the overall summary this category carries.No Edge
- Central Michigan's pass protection (#87) vs. Buffalo's pass rush (#80)
- Buffalo's pass protection (#79) vs. Central Michigan's pass rush (#92)
No Edge
Central MichiganNet rank gap: the average distance, in league rank places, between each offense and the defense it faces in this category. +10 means Buffalo are favored by 10 places on average. Thresholds: Slight 43, Moderate 60, Clear 78, Heavy 91 (CFB).Buffalo
Turnover marginShare of the overall summary this category carries.Clear Advantage
- Central Michigan turnover margin +0.4/game (#31) vs. Buffalo −0.6/game (#115)
Clear Advantage: Central Michigan
Central MichiganNet rank gap: the average distance, in league rank places, between each offense and the defense it faces in this category. +84 means Central Michigan are favored by 84 places on average. Thresholds: Slight 43, Moderate 60, Clear 78, Heavy 91 (CFB).Buffalo
Field-goal efficiencyShare of the overall summary this category carries.No call
- Central Michigan field-goal percentage not collected (rank not collected) vs. Buffalo not collected (rank not collected)
No call
Central MichiganNet rank gap: the average distance, in league rank places, between each offense and the defense it faces in this category. Ranks are missing, so no call is made. Thresholds: Slight 43, Moderate 60, Clear 78, Heavy 91 (CFB).Buffalo
Schedule contextShare of the overall summary this category carries.No Edge
- Central Michigan schedule strength 61% opponent win rate (#32) vs. Buffalo 56.1% opponent win rate (#61)
No Edge
Central MichiganNet rank gap: the average distance, in league rank places, between each offense and the defense it faces in this category. +29 means Central Michigan are favored by 29 places on average. Thresholds: Slight 43, Moderate 60, Clear 78, Heavy 91 (CFB).Buffalo

Method and Limitations

Limitations

Missing or narrowly covered metrics are excluded. Their weights are not redistributed to the remaining metrics.
Central Michigan: injury report carried from 2026 Week 8; statuses have not been re-confirmed.
Buffalo: injury report carried from 2026 Week 8; statuses have not been re-confirmed.
Game-time weather not collected; no weather adjustment is applied.

How This Is Computed

Rules-based comparison of the existing public CFBD pre-week profiles and original injury/context notes, with NWS weather context. No new provider or AI requests.
Rank strength = (teams ranked − rank) / (teams ranked − 1). A metric needs values and ranks for both teams and coverage of at least 80% of the FBS population. Rank 1 is best, including defense allowed and sacks allowed.
For each offense/defense metric: [(away offense strength − home defense strength) − (home offense strength − away defense strength)] / 2. Efficiency-only metrics compare the two teams directly.
Related metrics share a group weight: rushing/passing yardage receives twice the weight of yards per carry/attempt. Third down receives half of drive efficiency; red-zone score and TD percentages share the other half.
Weights: scoring 20%; rushing 15%; passing 15%; drive efficiency 15%; explosive plays 10%; pressure/protection 10%; turnover margin 5%; field goals 5%; schedule context 5%. Schedule uses the difference in opponents’ combined win rates.
Net comparison index: -0.8 on a −100 to +100 scale (positive favors Central Michigan, negative Buffalo). Missing weights stay neutral rather than being redistributed. This is not a probability, projected margin or betting model.
Overall call requires 55% of planned scoring weight and three games per team. Under 4 index points is even; 4+ slight; 12+ moderate requires 65% coverage and four games; 25+ strong requires 85% coverage and five games. Incomplete profile samples are not scored.
Record, venue splits, total offense/defense ranks and AP polls are not added again because they overlap existing evidence. Possession time is style context, not inherently better. Injuries, rest, rivalry and weather receive no invented numerical adjustments.
Schedule context is not a true opponent-adjusted rating. This heuristic has not been calibrated against outcomes. Odds are not inputs. Informational only; not a wagering recommendation.

Descriptive comparison of season stats only. The score has not been validated as a predictor and is not a forecast of the result.

WHAT TO WATCH

Key Factors

Passing
Buffalo's passing offense (#121) faces Central Michigan's pass defense (#12), a difficult matchup for the offense. Central Michigan's passing offense (#134) faces Buffalo's pass defense (#75), a difficult matchup for the offense.
Edge: Central Michigan
Turnovers
Central Michigan has a turnover margin of 0.44 per game (#31), compared with Buffalo at -0.56 (#115).
Edge: Central Michigan
Explosive plays
Central Michigan's explosive-play offense (#131) faces Buffalo's explosive-play defense (#51), a difficult matchup for the offense. Buffalo's explosive-play offense (#106) faces Central Michigan's explosive-play defense (#57), a difficult matchup for the offense.
Edge: Buffalo
Rushing
Central Michigan's rushing offense (#41) faces Buffalo's rush defense (#85), a statistical advantage for the offense. Buffalo's rushing offense (#52) faces Central Michigan's rush defense (#96), a statistical advantage for the offense.
Edge: Central Michigan
Scoring
Central Michigan's scoring offense (#123) faces Buffalo's scoring defense (#79), a difficult matchup for the offense. Buffalo's scoring offense (#97) faces Central Michigan's scoring defense (#62); the ranks do not show a clear edge.
Edge: Buffalo

Stats through Week 10 · Data: CollegeFootballData.com

Offense vs. Defense Comparison

TEAM PROFILE

Side-by-Side

TIERS OF 138 FBS

Metric	Central Michigan	Buffalo	Edge
Record	4-5	6-3	No call
Opponent win percentage rank	#32 61.0% opponent win rate	#61 56.1% opponent win rate	No call
SOS rank · ESPN FPI via CFBD	#74 As of 11/08, 8:46 PM EST	#114 As of 11/08, 8:46 PM EST	No call
SOR rank · ESPN FPI via CFBD	#105 As of 11/08, 8:46 PM EST	#81 As of 11/08, 8:46 PM EST	No call
Offense rank	#130 305.6 ypg	#107 345.2 ypg	No call
Defense rank	#45 338.8 ypg allowed	#80 374.4 ypg allowed	No call
ATS	5-4-0	5-4-0	No call
Rest / last game	14 d 11/04 · Eastern Michigan · N	15 d 11/03 · Miami (OH) · A	No call
Venue record (away / home)	0-3	4-1	No call
Next game	11/28 · Ball State · A	11/27 · Akron · A	No call
Out / doubtful	1	2	No call
Season to date · completed games before this week · CFBD
Games in sample	9	9	—
Points / game	19.8 ppg123 of 138	23.9 ppg97 of 138	No edge
Points allowed / game	23.8 ppg62 of 138	26.0 ppg79 of 138	No edge
Rushing yards / game	176.6 yds41 of 138	167.7 yds52 of 138	No edge
Yards / carry	4.5 yds51 of 138	4.1 yds85 of 138	No edge
Passing yards / game	129.0 yds134 of 138	177.6 yds121 of 138	No edge
Yards / pass attempt	5.9 yds133 of 138	5.5 yds138 of 138	No edge
3rd-down conversions	37.2%95 of 138	39.0%82 of 138	No edge
Red-zone scores	88.0%29 of 138	82.1%78 of 138	Central Michigan
Red-zone TDs	76.0%8 of 138	51.3%114 of 138	Central Michigan
Field goal %	Not collected	Not collected	Not enough data
Explosive plays (20+) / game	2.7131 of 138	3.6106 of 138	No edge
Sacks made / game	1.892 of 138	1.980 of 138	No edge
Sacks allowed / game	2.287 of 138	2.179 of 138	No edge
Rush yards allowed / game	167.2 yds96 of 138	154.9 yds85 of 138	No edge
Pass yards allowed / game	171.6 yds12 of 138	219.6 yds75 of 138	Central Michigan
3rd-down conv. allowed	47.3%129 of 138	35.7%44 of 138	Buffalo
Red-zone scores allowed	82.9%82 of 138	77.4%48 of 138	No edge
Red-zone TDs allowed	74.3%129 of 138	61.3%84 of 138	Buffalo
Explosive plays allowed / game	3.957 of 138	3.851 of 138	No edge
Turnover margin / game	0.431 of 138	-0.6115 of 138	Central Michigan
Time of possession	30:3555 of 138	30:1964 of 138	No edge

Stats Hub · head to head

Stat comparison

2026 season · stats through Week 10

CMU

AWAYCentral Michigan4-5 · 9 G

BUF

HOMEBuffalo6-3 · 9 G

Spread Not collectedO/U --Venue Not collectedKickoff Wed 11/18 · 7:30 PM ET

Offense vs. opposing defense

FBS ranks from the category pages · #1 best · edge only when both ranks exist

Central MichiganOffenseBuffaloDefense

ScoringEdge Buffalo

Total yardsEdge Buffalo

RushingEdge Central Michigan

PassingEdge Buffalo

Passing efficiencyEdge Buffalo

3rd down conversion%Edge Buffalo

4th down conversion%No edge

Red zone scoring%No edge

Sacks allowed vs sacksNo edge

TFL allowed vs TFLEdge Central Michigan

BuffaloOffenseCentral MichiganDefense

ScoringNo edge

Total yardsEdge Central Michigan

RushingEdge Buffalo

PassingEdge Central Michigan

Passing efficiencyEdge Central Michigan

3rd down conversion%Edge Buffalo

4th down conversion%Edge Buffalo

Red zone scoring%No edge

Sacks allowed vs sacksNo edge

TFL allowed vs TFLEdge Buffalo

Discipline and special teams

Team vs. team · same statistic on both sides

Central MichiganBuffalo

Penalties per gameNo edge

Penalty yards per gameNo edge

—Field-goal percentage%No call—

—Net puntingNo call—

Team vs. team

Same stat for both teams

Central MichiganBuffalo

Turnover marginEdge Central Michigan

Time of possessiontimeNo edge

Winning percentageEdge Buffalo

Data: CollegeFootballData.com. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams in this snapshot, the same population as the category pages. A team with no stored value for a statistic (for example, too few attempts) is unranked and shows as unavailable rather than shrinking the population. FCS opponents show stored values but are not ranked. Return rows appear only when the hub has return data. Unavailable values are never shown as zero.

Key Injuries

8 LISTED

Central Michigan: Carried forward from 2026 Week 8 — awaiting a Week 12 update. Statuses have not been re-confirmed. Injury report updated: not supplied.

Buffalo: Carried forward from 2026 Week 8 — awaiting a Week 12 update. Statuses have not been re-confirmed. Injury report updated: not supplied.

Team	Pos	Status	Detail
Central Michigan	QB	Questionable	Concussion protocol after WMU game Source · Source date unknown
Central Michigan	WR	Questionable	Soft-tissue/undisclosed injury Source · Source date unknown
Central Michigan	RB	Probable	Cleared from concussion per RotoWire 10/20 (Covers still lists Questionable) Source · Source date unknown
Central Michigan	TE	Out	Knee; extended absence (Sep 15 entry, may be stale) Source · Source date unknown
Buffalo	QB	Reserve	Knee, shut down for season (10/6) Source · Source date unknown
Buffalo	WR	Out	Undisclosed; Mays extended Source · Source date unknown
Buffalo	RB	Questionable	Undisclosed Source · Source date unknown
Buffalo	WR	Questionable	Undisclosed Source · Source date unknown

Central Michigan: Starting QB Angel Flores questionable (concussion); WR Shawn Foster II questionable; RB Clerveaux cleared.

Buffalo: QB E. Holmes out for season (knee); WR room gutted with three out and three questionable.

Historical Matchup

CFBD games involving an FBS team. Meetings played when both teams were FCS may not be included.

Shown from Central Michigan perspective vs Buffalo

Meetings: 7 since 2011
Record: 4–3
Avg margin: +1.3
Postseason meetings: 0

Since 2011 · Scores shown away–home; site from Central Michigan perspective.

2025-11-12Home19–38Winner: Central Michigan
2023-10-07Away13–37Winner: Buffalo
2022-11-09Home27–31Winner: Central Michigan
2019-10-26Away20–43Winner: Buffalo
2018-10-06Home34–24Winner: Buffalo

Player data: CollegeFootballData.com (saved data only). Uploaded summaries take precedence over automatic selections; missing periods are marked Not collected.

SCHEDULE CONTEXT

Previous Opponents

FULL SEASON

Central Michigan

Wk 1@New MexicoL 7–38Sat 09/05 · 10:00 PM ET
Wk 2vsColgateW 13–10Sat 09/12 · 1:00 PM ET
Wk 3vsWyomingW 24–10Sat 09/19 · 1:00 PM ET
Wk 4@6MiamiL 3–52Sat 09/26 · 6:30 PM ET
Wk 5vsAkronW 41–17Sat 10/03 · 3:30 PM ET
Wk 6@OhioL 14–31Sat 10/10 · 3:30 PM ET
Wk 7vsWestern MichiganL 14–21Sat 10/17 · 1:30 PM ET
Wk 8vsMiami (OH)L 27–28Sat 10/24 · 1:00 PM ET
Wk 9Bye
Wk 10vsEastern Michigan(N)W 35–7Wed 11/04 · 7:30 PM ET
Wk 11vsSacramento State-17Wed 11/11 · 7:30 PM ET
Wk 12@BuffaloThis game–Wed 11/18 · 7:30 PM ET
Wk 13@Ball State–Sat 11/28 · 12:00 PM ET

Record4-5 · 2-3 conf

FBS opponents’ combined record47-30

Buffalo

Wk 1vsUAlbanyW 21–17Thu 09/03 · 7:00 PM ET
Wk 2@Florida InternationalL 20–33Sat 09/12 · 6:00 PM ET
Wk 3@14Penn StateL 13–55Sat 09/19 · 12:00 PM ET
Wk 4vsRobert MorrisW 31–28Sat 09/26 · 3:30 PM ET
Wk 5vsWestern MichiganL 17–20Sat 10/03 · 1:00 PM ET
Wk 6@ToledoW 23–8Sat 10/10 · 3:30 PM ET
Wk 7vsMassachusettsW 25–18Sat 10/17 · 1:00 PM ET
Wk 8vsBowling GreenW 31–24Sat 10/24 · 3:30 PM ET
Wk 9Bye
Wk 10@Miami (OH)W 34–31Tue 11/03 · 8:00 PM ET
Wk 11@Ball State-1Wed 11/11 · 7:30 PM ET
Wk 12vsCentral MichiganThis game–Wed 11/18 · 7:30 PM ET
Wk 13@Akron–Fri 11/27 · 12:00 PM ET

Record6-3 · 4-1 conf

FBS opponents’ combined record37-29

Quarter splits and venue details

Loading saved details…

Schedule & Results

Loading saved details…

Unavailable figures are shown as “Not collected.” Rankings are national ranks where supplied.