WEEKLY SLATE / CFB 2026

Week 12 - 11/17 thru 11/20

12 games / 24 teams

LeagueSeasonWeek

Rankings: CFP (Nov 10)

Tuesday, November 173 games

Tue 11/17 · 7:00 PM ET · 41°F, 0 mphBall State3-7@Ohio7-3Spread--O/U--
Tue 11/17 · 6:00 PM ET · 42°F, 1 mphEastern Michigan4-6@Western Michigan7-3Spread--O/U--
Tue 11/17 · 7:00 PM ET · 41°F, 0 mphMiami (OH)6-4@Kent State3-7Spread--O/U--

Wednesday, November 182 games

Wed 11/18 · 7:00 PM ET · 30°F, 1 mphAkron1-9@Massachusetts5-5Spread--O/U--
Wed 11/18 · 7:30 PM ET · 46°F, 5 mphCentral Michigan5-5@Buffalo7-3Spread--O/U--

Thursday, November 191 game

Thu 11/19 · 7:30 PM ETRice1-8@Temple2-7Spread--O/U--

Friday, November 206 games

	Score		TV						Opp win% A/H	SOS A/H · FPI	SOR A/H · FPI	Weather	Flags
Ball State3-7@ Ohio7-3	——	Tue 11/17 · 7:00 PM ET	TBA	----	--	--	----	----	----	----	----	OK41F / 0 mph
Eastern Michigan4-6@ Western Michigan7-3	——	Tue 11/17 · 6:00 PM ET	TBA	----	--	--	----	----	----	----	----	OK42F / 1 mph
Miami (OH)6-4@ Kent State3-7	——	Tue 11/17 · 7:00 PM ET	TBA	----	--	--	----	----	----	----	----	OK41F / 0 mph
Akron1-9@ Massachusetts5-5	——	Wed 11/18 · 7:00 PM ET	TBA	----	--	--	----	----	----	----	----	COLD30F / 1 mph
Central Michigan5-5@ Buffalo7-3	——	Wed 11/18 · 7:30 PM ET	TBA	----	--	--	----	----	----	----	----	OK46F / 5 mph
Rice1-8@ Temple2-7	——	Thu 11/19 · 7:30 PM ET	TBA	----	--	--	----	----	----	----	----	--
Iowa State4-5@ UCF5-4	——	Fri 11/20 · 6:00 PM ET	TBA	----	--	--	----	----	----	----	----	--
Clemson6-3@ Duke7-2	——	Fri 11/20 · 7:30 PM ET	TBA	----	--	--	----	----	----	----	----	--
Bowling Green3-7@ Toledo8-2	——	Fri 11/20 · 7:30 PM ET	TBA	----	--	--	136 17	90 26	104 134	97 137	130 69	--	INJ 5
16Oregon6-3@ Michigan State3-6	——	Fri 11/20 · 8:00 PM ET	TBA	16--	--	--	----	----	----	----	----	--
UTEP1-8@ Air Force7-2	——	Fri 11/20 · 8:00 PM ET	TBA	----	--	--	----	----	----	----	----	--
New Mexico8-1@ Wyoming6-3	——	Fri 11/20 · 9:00 PM ET	TBA	----	--	--	----	----	----	----	----	--

Click a row for full analytics. Rank tiers by percentile of FBS teams: dark green top 18%, green 36%, gray 64%, orange 82%, red below. AP in gold. "--" = not collected.

Bowling Green vs Toledo / ESC TO CLOSE

Bowling Green vs Toledo: Week 12 Matchup Breakdown

MATCHUP ANALYSIS · Bowling Green vs Toledo

Fri 11/20 · 7:30 PM ET

Switch game · Week 12

Unranked

Bowling Green3-7AWAY

Unranked

Toledo8-2HOME

Point spreadNot collectedSource and update time not collected

Over / under--Source and update time not collected

Game-time weatherNot collectedWeather not collected · Source and update time not collected

Informational only · not an offer to wager · lines as of time not collected

OVERALL MATCHUP SUMMARYNO RELIABLE OVERALL CALL

Not enough comparable data for an overall advantage

The collected profile sample or comparison coverage is too limited for a responsible overall call. Available comparisons and context are shown below, without treating missing data as a weakness.

Data coverageLimited5% of planned weight

How much of the comparison had usable stats. Not a win probability.

SampleBowling Green: 9 profile games · Toledo: 9 profile games1 of 9 factors scored

Too little matched data to make a reliable overall comparison. Use the individual stats below instead.

Bowling Green: profile sample (9 games) differs from its completed record (10 games). Toledo: profile sample (9 games) differs from its completed record (10 games). Bowling Green: injury report carried from 2026 Week 9; statuses have not been re-confirmed. Toledo: injury report carried from 2026 Week 8; statuses have not been re-confirmed.

When Each Team Has the Ball

Bowling Green offense vs. Toledo defense

Passing Offense

Bowling Green's passing offense (#122) goes up against Toledo's pass defense (#51).

Moderate Advantage: Toledo

Rushing Offense

Bowling Green's rushing offense (#126) faces Toledo's run defense (#31).

Heavy Advantage: Toledo

Pass Protection

Bowling Green's pass protection (#65) meets Toledo's pass rush (#10).

Slight Advantage: Toledo

Red Zone Offense

Bowling Green's red-zone offense (#118) against Toledo's red-zone defense (#124).

No Edge

Red-zone scoring counts any score (touchdown or field goal), not touchdown rate alone.

Third Down Offense

Bowling Green's third-down offense (#75) takes on Toledo's third-down defense (#34).

No Edge

Overall

Not enough data to assess an edge.

Toledo offense vs. Bowling Green defense

Passing Offense

Toledo's passing offense (#29) goes up against Bowling Green's pass defense (#8).

No Edge

Rushing Offense

Toledo's rushing offense (#28) faces Bowling Green's run defense (#133).

Heavy Advantage: Toledo

Pass Protection

Toledo's pass protection (#13) meets Bowling Green's pass rush (#39).

No Edge

Red Zone Offense

Toledo's red-zone offense (#22) against Bowling Green's red-zone defense (#126).

Heavy Advantage: Toledo

Red-zone scoring counts any score (touchdown or field goal), not touchdown rate alone.

Third Down Offense

Toledo's third-down offense (#41) takes on Bowling Green's third-down defense (#36).

No Edge

Overall

Not enough data to assess an edge.

Situational Context

Overall Record: Bowling Green is 3-7 overall. Toledo is 8-2 overall.
Game Context: Bowling Green is 1-4 on the road. Toledo is 5-1 at home.
Rest: Bowling Green: 10 days between games (Extended rest). Toledo: 9 days between games (Extended rest).
Previous and Next Opponents:
- Bowling Green: previous opponent Kent State, 11/10 (home); next opponent Massachusetts, 11/28 (home)
- Toledo: previous opponent Massachusetts, 11/11 (home); next opponent Ohio, 11/27 (away)
Time of Possession: Bowling Green 31:01; Toledo 29:33 (style context, not an automatic advantage)
Injuries: Bowling Green: 0 out, 1 season-ending, 0 doubtful (last available report). Toledo: 2 out, 0 season-ending, 0 doubtful (last available report). No player-value adjustment is applied.

Driver Breakdown1/9 SCORED

ScoringShare of the overall summary this category carries.Moderate Advantage
- Bowling Green's scoring offense (#131) vs. Toledo's scoring defense (#67)
- Toledo's scoring offense (#22) vs. Bowling Green's scoring defense (#105)
Moderate Advantage: Toledo
Bowling GreenNet rank gap: the average distance, in league rank places, between each offense and the defense it faces in this category. +73.5 means Toledo are favored by 73.5 places on average. Thresholds: Slight 43, Moderate 60, Clear 78, Heavy 91 (CFB).Toledo
RushingShare of the overall summary this category carries.Heavy Advantage
- Bowling Green's rushing offense (#126) vs. Toledo's run defense (#31)
- Toledo's rushing offense (#28) vs. Bowling Green's run defense (#133)
- Bowling Green yards per carry 3.3 (#128) vs. Toledo 4.9 (#37)
Heavy Advantage: Toledo
Bowling GreenNet rank gap: the average distance, in league rank places, between each offense and the defense it faces in this category. +97 means Toledo are favored by 97 places on average. Thresholds: Slight 43, Moderate 60, Clear 78, Heavy 91 (CFB).Toledo
PassingShare of the overall summary this category carries.No Edge
- Bowling Green's passing offense (#122) vs. Toledo's pass defense (#51)
- Toledo's passing offense (#29) vs. Bowling Green's pass defense (#8)
- Bowling Green yards per attempt 6.8 (#100) vs. Toledo 8.4 (#23)
No Edge
Bowling GreenNet rank gap: the average distance, in league rank places, between each offense and the defense it faces in this category. +42.3 means Toledo are favored by 42.3 places on average. Thresholds: Slight 43, Moderate 60, Clear 78, Heavy 91 (CFB).Toledo
Drive efficiencyShare of the overall summary this category carries.No Edge
- Bowling Green's third-down offense (#75) vs. Toledo's third-down defense (#34)
- Toledo's third-down offense (#41) vs. Bowling Green's third-down defense (#36)
- Bowling Green's red-zone scoring offense (#118) vs. Toledo's red-zone scoring defense (#124)
- Toledo's red-zone scoring offense (#22) vs. Bowling Green's red-zone scoring defense (#126)
- Bowling Green's red-zone touchdown offense (#105) vs. Toledo's red-zone touchdown defense (#69)
- Toledo's red-zone touchdown offense (#17) vs. Bowling Green's red-zone touchdown defense (#67)
No Edge
Bowling GreenNet rank gap: the average distance, in league rank places, between each offense and the defense it faces in this category. +36.7 means Toledo are favored by 36.7 places on average. Thresholds: Slight 43, Moderate 60, Clear 78, Heavy 91 (CFB).Toledo
Explosive playsShare of the overall summary this category carries.Moderate Advantage
- Bowling Green's big-play offense (#131) vs. Toledo's big-play defense (#28)
- Toledo's big-play offense (#59) vs. Bowling Green's big-play defense (#90)
Moderate Advantage: Toledo
Bowling GreenNet rank gap: the average distance, in league rank places, between each offense and the defense it faces in this category. +67 means Toledo are favored by 67 places on average. Thresholds: Slight 43, Moderate 60, Clear 78, Heavy 91 (CFB).Toledo
Pass protection / pressureShare of the overall summary this category carries.No Edge
- Bowling Green's pass protection (#65) vs. Toledo's pass rush (#10)
- Toledo's pass protection (#13) vs. Bowling Green's pass rush (#39)
No Edge
Bowling GreenNet rank gap: the average distance, in league rank places, between each offense and the defense it faces in this category. +40.5 means Toledo are favored by 40.5 places on average. Thresholds: Slight 43, Moderate 60, Clear 78, Heavy 91 (CFB).Toledo
Turnover marginShare of the overall summary this category carries.No Edge
- Bowling Green turnover margin −0.3/game (#97) vs. Toledo +0.1/game (#56)
No Edge
Bowling GreenNet rank gap: the average distance, in league rank places, between each offense and the defense it faces in this category. +41 means Toledo are favored by 41 places on average. Thresholds: Slight 43, Moderate 60, Clear 78, Heavy 91 (CFB).Toledo
Field-goal efficiencyShare of the overall summary this category carries.No call
- Bowling Green field-goal percentage not collected (rank not collected) vs. Toledo not collected (rank not collected)
No call
Bowling GreenNet rank gap: the average distance, in league rank places, between each offense and the defense it faces in this category. Ranks are missing, so no call is made. Thresholds: Slight 43, Moderate 60, Clear 78, Heavy 91 (CFB).Toledo
Schedule contextShare of the overall summary this category carries.No Edge
- Bowling Green schedule strength 48.3% opponent win rate (#104) vs. Toledo 42% opponent win rate (#134)
No Edge
Bowling GreenNet rank gap: the average distance, in league rank places, between each offense and the defense it faces in this category. +30 means Bowling Green are favored by 30 places on average. Thresholds: Slight 43, Moderate 60, Clear 78, Heavy 91 (CFB).Toledo

Method and Limitations

Limitations

Missing or narrowly covered metrics are excluded. Their weights are not redistributed to the remaining metrics.
Bowling Green: profile sample (9 games) differs from its completed record (10 games).
Toledo: profile sample (9 games) differs from its completed record (10 games).
Bowling Green: injury report carried from 2026 Week 9; statuses have not been re-confirmed.
Toledo: injury report carried from 2026 Week 8; statuses have not been re-confirmed.
Game-time weather not collected; no weather adjustment is applied.

How This Is Computed

Rules-based comparison of the existing public CFBD pre-week profiles and original injury/context notes, with NWS weather context. No new provider or AI requests.
Rank strength = (teams ranked − rank) / (teams ranked − 1). A metric needs values and ranks for both teams and coverage of at least 80% of the FBS population. Rank 1 is best, including defense allowed and sacks allowed.
For each offense/defense metric: [(away offense strength − home defense strength) − (home offense strength − away defense strength)] / 2. Efficiency-only metrics compare the two teams directly.
Related metrics share a group weight: rushing/passing yardage receives twice the weight of yards per carry/attempt. Third down receives half of drive efficiency; red-zone score and TD percentages share the other half.
Weights: scoring 20%; rushing 15%; passing 15%; drive efficiency 15%; explosive plays 10%; pressure/protection 10%; turnover margin 5%; field goals 5%; schedule context 5%. Schedule uses the difference in opponents’ combined win rates.
Net comparison index: 0.3 on a −100 to +100 scale (positive favors Bowling Green, negative Toledo). Missing weights stay neutral rather than being redistributed. This is not a probability, projected margin or betting model.
Overall call requires 55% of planned scoring weight and three games per team. Under 4 index points is even; 4+ slight; 12+ moderate requires 65% coverage and four games; 25+ strong requires 85% coverage and five games. Incomplete profile samples are not scored.
Record, venue splits, total offense/defense ranks and AP polls are not added again because they overlap existing evidence. Possession time is style context, not inherently better. Injuries, rest, rivalry and weather receive no invented numerical adjustments.
Schedule context is not a true opponent-adjusted rating. This heuristic has not been calibrated against outcomes. Odds are not inputs. Informational only; not a wagering recommendation.

Descriptive comparison of season stats only. The score has not been validated as a predictor and is not a forecast of the result.

WHAT TO WATCH

Key Factors

RECORD TRAP
Toledo's strong record came against opponents ranked in the bottom 30% by combined win rate. Flag definition

How flags and edges work

Stats through Week 10 · Data: CollegeFootballData.com

Offense vs. Defense Comparison

TEAM PROFILE

Side-by-Side

TIERS OF 138 FBS

Incomplete box-score coverage. Some completed games are missing from the profile sample. Numbers and ranks below describe only the available sample, not the full record. Profile edge calls are withheld until coverage is complete.

Metric	Bowling Green	Toledo	Edge
Record	3-7	8-2	No call
Opponent win percentage rank	#104 48.3% opponent win rate	#134 42.0% opponent win rate	No call
SOS rank · ESPN FPI via CFBD	#97 As of 11/08, 8:46 PM EST	#137 As of 11/08, 8:46 PM EST	No call
SOR rank · ESPN FPI via CFBD	#130 As of 11/08, 8:46 PM EST	#69 As of 11/08, 8:46 PM EST	No call
Offense rank	#136 286.4 ypg Partial sample	#17 455.3 ypgPartial sample	No call
Defense rank	#90 377.9 ypg allowedPartial sample	#26 314.3 ypg allowedPartial sample	No call
ATS	4-6-0	5-4-1	No call
Rest / last game	10 d 11/10 · Kent State · H	9 d 11/11 · Massachusetts · H	No call
Venue record (away / home)	1-4	5-1	No call
Next game	11/28 · Massachusetts · H	11/27 · Ohio · A	No call
Out / doubtful	1	2	No call
Season to date · completed games before this week · CFBD
Games in sample	9Partial · 9 of 10 completed games · 1 missing	9Partial · 9 of 10 completed games · 1 missing	—
Points / game	17.8 ppg131 of 138Partial sample	35.4 ppg22 of 138Partial sample	Partial sample
Points allowed / game	29.0 ppg105 of 138Partial sample	24.4 ppg67 of 138Partial sample	Partial sample
Rushing yards / game	110.1 yds126 of 138Partial sample	192.6 yds28 of 138Partial sample	Partial sample
Yards / carry	3.3 yds128 of 138Partial sample	4.9 yds37 of 138Partial sample	Partial sample
Passing yards / game	176.3 yds122 of 138Partial sample	262.8 yds29 of 138Partial sample	Partial sample
Yards / pass attempt	6.8 yds100 of 138Partial sample	8.4 yds23 of 138Partial sample	Partial sample
3rd-down conversions	39.7%75 of 138Partial sample	42.9%41 of 138Partial sample	Partial sample
Red-zone scores	73.9%118 of 138Partial sample	88.6%22 of 138Partial sample	Partial sample
Red-zone TDs	52.2%105 of 138Partial sample	72.7%17 of 138Partial sample	Partial sample
Field goal %	Not collected	Not collected	Partial sample
Explosive plays (20+) / game	2.7131 of 138Partial sample	4.659 of 138Partial sample	Partial sample
Sacks made / game	2.439 of 138Partial sample	3.010 of 138Partial sample	Partial sample
Sacks allowed / game	1.965 of 138Partial sample	1.013 of 138Partial sample	Partial sample
Rush yards allowed / game	212.0 yds133 of 138Partial sample	114.4 yds31 of 138Partial sample	Partial sample
Pass yards allowed / game	165.9 yds8 of 138Partial sample	199.9 yds51 of 138Partial sample	Partial sample
3rd-down conv. allowed	34.6%36 of 138Partial sample	34.1%34 of 138Partial sample	Partial sample
Red-zone scores allowed	90.3%126 of 138Partial sample	89.7%124 of 138Partial sample	Partial sample
Red-zone TDs allowed	58.1%67 of 138Partial sample	58.6%69 of 138Partial sample	Partial sample
Explosive plays allowed / game	4.490 of 138Partial sample	3.328 of 138Partial sample	Partial sample
Turnover margin / game	-0.397 of 138Partial sample	0.156 of 138Partial sample	Partial sample
Time of possession	31:0145 of 138Partial sample	29:3385 of 138Partial sample	Partial sample

Stats Hub · head to head

Stat comparison

2026 season · stats through Week 10

BGSU

AWAYBowling Green2-7 · 9 G

TOL

HOMEToledo7-2 · 9 G

Spread Not collectedO/U --Venue Not collectedKickoff Fri 11/20 · 7:30 PM ET

Offense vs. opposing defense

FBS ranks from the category pages · #1 best · edge only when both ranks exist

Bowling GreenOffenseToledoDefense

ScoringEdge Toledo

Total yardsEdge Toledo

RushingEdge Toledo

PassingEdge Toledo

Passing efficiencyEdge Toledo

3rd down conversion%No edge

4th down conversion%No edge

Red zone scoring%No edge

Sacks allowed vs sacksEdge Toledo

TFL allowed vs TFLEdge Toledo

Kickoff returnsNo call—

ToledoOffenseBowling GreenDefense

ScoringEdge Toledo

Total yardsEdge Toledo

RushingEdge Toledo

PassingNo edge

Passing efficiencyEdge Toledo

3rd down conversion%No edge

4th down conversion%No edge

Red zone scoring%Edge Toledo

Sacks allowed vs sacksNo edge

TFL allowed vs TFLNo edge

Kickoff returnsNo call—

Discipline and special teams

Team vs. team · same statistic on both sides

Bowling GreenToledo

Penalties per gameEdge Bowling Green

Penalty yards per gameEdge Bowling Green

—Field-goal percentage%No call—

—Net puntingNo call—

Team vs. team

Same stat for both teams

Bowling GreenToledo

Turnover marginNo edge

Time of possessiontimeNo edge

Winning percentageEdge Toledo

Data: CollegeFootballData.com. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams in this snapshot, the same population as the category pages. A team with no stored value for a statistic (for example, too few attempts) is unranked and shows as unavailable rather than shrinking the population. FCS opponents show stored values but are not ranked. Return rows appear only when the hub has return data. Unavailable values are never shown as zero.

Key Injuries

5 LISTED

Bowling Green: Carried forward from 2026 Week 9 — awaiting a Week 12 update. Statuses have not been re-confirmed. Injury report updated: not supplied.

Toledo: Carried forward from 2026 Week 8 — awaiting a Week 12 update. Statuses have not been re-confirmed. Injury report updated: not supplied.

Team	Pos	Status	Detail
Bowling Green	WR	Reserve	Undisclosed; out for rest of season (Covers 9/26) — Wednesday listing, not re-verified Friday Source · Source date unknown
Toledo	WR	Questionable	Undisclosed (Covers, 10/18) Source · Source date unknown
Toledo	RB	Questionable	Undisclosed (Covers, 10/17) Source · Source date unknown
Toledo	Unknown	Out	Undisclosed; no timetable Source · Source date unknown
Toledo	TE	Out	Undisclosed; undetermined length Source · Source date unknown

Bowling Green: No current injuries found. Jay Kastantin is BGSU's passing leader (theScore/AP preview). Four Covers entries dated before Oct 24 were dropped.

Toledo: WR depth is hit: WRs K. Gilbert Jr. and T. Jones are out and WR R. Bond is questionable. RB C. Smith is also questionable.

Quarter splits and venue details

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Schedule & Results

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Unavailable figures are shown as “Not collected.” Rankings are national ranks where supplied.