WEEKLY SLATE / CFB 2026

Week 12 - 11/17 thru 11/20

12 games / 24 teams

LeagueSeasonWeek

Rankings: CFP (Nov 10)

Tuesday, November 173 games

Tue 11/17 · 7:00 PM ET · 41°F, 0 mphBall State3-7@Ohio7-3Spread--O/U--
Tue 11/17 · 6:00 PM ET · 42°F, 1 mphEastern Michigan4-6@Western Michigan7-3Spread--O/U--
Tue 11/17 · 7:00 PM ET · 41°F, 0 mphMiami (OH)6-4@Kent State3-7Spread--O/U--

Wednesday, November 182 games

Wed 11/18 · 7:00 PM ET · 30°F, 1 mphAkron1-9@Massachusetts5-5Spread--O/U--
Wed 11/18 · 7:30 PM ET · 46°F, 5 mphCentral Michigan5-5@Buffalo7-3Spread--O/U--

Thursday, November 191 game

Thu 11/19 · 7:30 PM ETRice1-8@Temple2-7Spread--O/U--

Friday, November 206 games

	Score		TV						Opp win% A/H	SOS A/H · FPI	SOR A/H · FPI	Weather	Flags
Ball State3-7@ Ohio7-3	——	Tue 11/17 · 7:00 PM ET	TBA	----	--	--	----	----	----	----	----	OK41F / 0 mph
Eastern Michigan4-6@ Western Michigan7-3	——	Tue 11/17 · 6:00 PM ET	TBA	----	--	--	----	----	----	----	----	OK42F / 1 mph
Miami (OH)6-4@ Kent State3-7	——	Tue 11/17 · 7:00 PM ET	TBA	----	--	--	----	----	----	----	----	OK41F / 0 mph
Akron1-9@ Massachusetts5-5	——	Wed 11/18 · 7:00 PM ET	TBA	----	--	--	----	----	----	----	----	COLD30F / 1 mph
Central Michigan5-5@ Buffalo7-3	——	Wed 11/18 · 7:30 PM ET	TBA	----	--	--	----	----	----	----	----	OK46F / 5 mph
Rice1-8@ Temple2-7	——	Thu 11/19 · 7:30 PM ET	TBA	----	--	--	----	----	----	----	----	--
Iowa State4-5@ UCF5-4	——	Fri 11/20 · 6:00 PM ET	TBA	----	--	--	72 93	103 92	3 27	17 32	53 43	--	INJ 17
Clemson6-3@ Duke7-2	——	Fri 11/20 · 7:30 PM ET	TBA	----	--	--	----	----	----	----	----	--
Bowling Green3-7@ Toledo8-2	——	Fri 11/20 · 7:30 PM ET	TBA	----	--	--	----	----	----	----	----	--
16Oregon6-3@ Michigan State3-6	——	Fri 11/20 · 8:00 PM ET	TBA	16--	--	--	----	----	----	----	----	--
UTEP1-8@ Air Force7-2	——	Fri 11/20 · 8:00 PM ET	TBA	----	--	--	----	----	----	----	----	--
New Mexico8-1@ Wyoming6-3	——	Fri 11/20 · 9:00 PM ET	TBA	----	--	--	----	----	----	----	----	--

Click a row for full analytics. Rank tiers by percentile of FBS teams: dark green top 18%, green 36%, gray 64%, orange 82%, red below. AP in gold. "--" = not collected.

Iowa State vs UCF / ESC TO CLOSE

Iowa State vs UCF: Week 12 Matchup Breakdown

MATCHUP ANALYSIS · Iowa State vs UCF

Fri 11/20 · 6:00 PM ET

Switch game · Week 12

Unranked

Iowa State4-5AWAY

Unranked

UCF5-4HOME

Point spreadNot collectedSource and update time not collected

Over / under--Source and update time not collected

Game-time weatherNot collectedWeather not collected · Source and update time not collected

Informational only · not an offer to wager · lines as of time not collected

OVERALL MATCHUP SUMMARYPROFILES LOOK EVEN

No clear overall statistical advantage

The weighted comparisons do not separate these teams clearly. Individual strengths can still matter, but the available evidence does not support a clear overall edge.

Data coverageBroad95% of planned weight

How much of the comparison had usable stats. Not a win probability.

SampleIowa State: 9 profile games · UCF: 9 profile games8 of 9 factors scored

Iowa State: injury report carried from 2026 Week 10; statuses have not been re-confirmed. UCF: injury report carried from 2026 Week 10; statuses have not been re-confirmed.

When Each Team Has the Ball

Iowa State offense vs. UCF defense

Passing Offense

Iowa State's passing offense (#100) goes up against UCF's pass defense (#117).

No Edge

Rushing Offense

Iowa State's rushing offense (#37) faces UCF's run defense (#58).

No Edge

Pass Protection

Iowa State's pass protection (#55) meets UCF's pass rush (#92).

No Edge

Red Zone Offense

Iowa State's red-zone offense (#5) against UCF's red-zone defense (#66).

Moderate Advantage: Iowa State

Red-zone scoring counts any score (touchdown or field goal), not touchdown rate alone.

Third Down Offense

Iowa State's third-down offense (#111) takes on UCF's third-down defense (#94).

No Edge

Overall

Slight Edge: Iowa State

UCF offense vs. Iowa State defense

Passing Offense

UCF's passing offense (#88) goes up against Iowa State's pass defense (#98).

No Edge

Rushing Offense

UCF's rushing offense (#81) faces Iowa State's run defense (#92).

No Edge

Pass Protection

UCF's pass protection (#97) meets Iowa State's pass rush (#113).

No Edge

Red Zone Offense

UCF's red-zone offense (#72) against Iowa State's red-zone defense (#87).

No Edge

Red-zone scoring counts any score (touchdown or field goal), not touchdown rate alone.

Third Down Offense

UCF's third-down offense (#108) takes on Iowa State's third-down defense (#63).

Slight Advantage: Iowa State

Overall

Slight Edge: UCF

Situational Context

Overall Record: Iowa State is 4-5 overall. UCF is 5-4 overall.
Game Context: Iowa State is 0-4 on the road. UCF is 4-1 at home.
Rest: 13 days between games for both teams. Off a bye for both teams.
Previous and Next Opponents:
- Iowa State: previous opponent Baylor, 11/07 (away); next opponent Kansas State, 11/28 (home)
- UCF: previous opponent Kansas, 11/07 (away); next opponent Colorado, 11/28 (away)
Time of Possession: Iowa State 31:05; UCF 29:04 (style context, not an automatic advantage)
Injuries: Iowa State: 1 out, 0 season-ending, 0 doubtful (last available report). UCF: 5 out, 2 season-ending, 0 doubtful (last available report). No player-value adjustment is applied.

Driver Breakdown8/9 SCORED

ScoringShare of the overall summary this category carries.No Edge
- Iowa State's scoring offense (#62) vs. UCF's scoring defense (#79)
- UCF's scoring offense (#55) vs. Iowa State's scoring defense (#104)
No Edge
Iowa StateNet rank gap: the average distance, in league rank places, between each offense and the defense it faces in this category. +16 means UCF are favored by 16 places on average. Thresholds: Slight 43, Moderate 60, Clear 78, Heavy 91 (CFB).UCF
RushingShare of the overall summary this category carries.No Edge
- Iowa State's rushing offense (#37) vs. UCF's run defense (#58)
- UCF's rushing offense (#81) vs. Iowa State's run defense (#92)
- Iowa State yards per carry 4.9 (#37) vs. UCF 4.3 (#71)
No Edge
Iowa StateNet rank gap: the average distance, in league rank places, between each offense and the defense it faces in this category. +14.7 means Iowa State are favored by 14.7 places on average. Thresholds: Slight 43, Moderate 60, Clear 78, Heavy 91 (CFB).UCF
PassingShare of the overall summary this category carries.No Edge
- Iowa State's passing offense (#100) vs. UCF's pass defense (#117)
- UCF's passing offense (#88) vs. Iowa State's pass defense (#98)
- Iowa State yards per attempt 7.4 (#71) vs. UCF 6.8 (#100)
No Edge
Iowa StateNet rank gap: the average distance, in league rank places, between each offense and the defense it faces in this category. +12 means Iowa State are favored by 12 places on average. Thresholds: Slight 43, Moderate 60, Clear 78, Heavy 91 (CFB).UCF
Drive efficiencyShare of the overall summary this category carries.No Edge
- Iowa State's third-down offense (#111) vs. UCF's third-down defense (#94)
- UCF's third-down offense (#108) vs. Iowa State's third-down defense (#63)
- Iowa State's red-zone scoring offense (#5) vs. UCF's red-zone scoring defense (#66)
- UCF's red-zone scoring offense (#72) vs. Iowa State's red-zone scoring defense (#87)
- Iowa State's red-zone touchdown offense (#36) vs. UCF's red-zone touchdown defense (#56)
- UCF's red-zone touchdown offense (#69) vs. Iowa State's red-zone touchdown defense (#132)
No Edge
Iowa StateNet rank gap: the average distance, in league rank places, between each offense and the defense it faces in this category. +5.2 means Iowa State are favored by 5.2 places on average. Thresholds: Slight 43, Moderate 60, Clear 78, Heavy 91 (CFB).UCF
Explosive playsShare of the overall summary this category carries.No Edge
- Iowa State's big-play offense (#28) vs. UCF's big-play defense (#104)
- UCF's big-play offense (#72) vs. Iowa State's big-play defense (#104)
No Edge
Iowa StateNet rank gap: the average distance, in league rank places, between each offense and the defense it faces in this category. +22 means Iowa State are favored by 22 places on average. Thresholds: Slight 43, Moderate 60, Clear 78, Heavy 91 (CFB).UCF
Pass protection / pressureShare of the overall summary this category carries.No Edge
- Iowa State's pass protection (#55) vs. UCF's pass rush (#92)
- UCF's pass protection (#97) vs. Iowa State's pass rush (#113)
No Edge
Iowa StateNet rank gap: the average distance, in league rank places, between each offense and the defense it faces in this category. +10.5 means Iowa State are favored by 10.5 places on average. Thresholds: Slight 43, Moderate 60, Clear 78, Heavy 91 (CFB).UCF
Turnover marginShare of the overall summary this category carries.No Edge
- Iowa State turnover margin +0.2/game (#49) vs. UCF +0.3/game (#43)
No Edge
Iowa StateNet rank gap: the average distance, in league rank places, between each offense and the defense it faces in this category. +6 means UCF are favored by 6 places on average. Thresholds: Slight 43, Moderate 60, Clear 78, Heavy 91 (CFB).UCF
Field-goal efficiencyShare of the overall summary this category carries.No call
- Iowa State field-goal percentage not collected (rank not collected) vs. UCF not collected (rank not collected)
No call
Iowa StateNet rank gap: the average distance, in league rank places, between each offense and the defense it faces in this category. Ranks are missing, so no call is made. Thresholds: Slight 43, Moderate 60, Clear 78, Heavy 91 (CFB).UCF
Schedule contextShare of the overall summary this category carries.No Edge
- Iowa State schedule strength 68.5% opponent win rate (#3) vs. UCF 61.1% opponent win rate (#27)
No Edge
Iowa StateNet rank gap: the average distance, in league rank places, between each offense and the defense it faces in this category. +24 means Iowa State are favored by 24 places on average. Thresholds: Slight 43, Moderate 60, Clear 78, Heavy 91 (CFB).UCF

Method and Limitations

Limitations

Missing or narrowly covered metrics are excluded. Their weights are not redistributed to the remaining metrics.
Iowa State: injury report carried from 2026 Week 10; statuses have not been re-confirmed.
UCF: injury report carried from 2026 Week 10; statuses have not been re-confirmed.
Game-time weather not collected; no weather adjustment is applied.

How This Is Computed

Rules-based comparison of the existing public CFBD pre-week profiles and original injury/context notes, with NWS weather context. No new provider or AI requests.
Rank strength = (teams ranked − rank) / (teams ranked − 1). A metric needs values and ranks for both teams and coverage of at least 80% of the FBS population. Rank 1 is best, including defense allowed and sacks allowed.
For each offense/defense metric: [(away offense strength − home defense strength) − (home offense strength − away defense strength)] / 2. Efficiency-only metrics compare the two teams directly.
Related metrics share a group weight: rushing/passing yardage receives twice the weight of yards per carry/attempt. Third down receives half of drive efficiency; red-zone score and TD percentages share the other half.
Weights: scoring 20%; rushing 15%; passing 15%; drive efficiency 15%; explosive plays 10%; pressure/protection 10%; turnover margin 5%; field goals 5%; schedule context 5%. Schedule uses the difference in opponents’ combined win rates.
Net comparison index: 0.8 on a −100 to +100 scale (positive favors Iowa State, negative UCF). Missing weights stay neutral rather than being redistributed. This is not a probability, projected margin or betting model.
Overall call requires 55% of planned scoring weight and three games per team. Under 4 index points is even; 4+ slight; 12+ moderate requires 65% coverage and four games; 25+ strong requires 85% coverage and five games. Incomplete profile samples are not scored.
Record, venue splits, total offense/defense ranks and AP polls are not added again because they overlap existing evidence. Possession time is style context, not inherently better. Injuries, rest, rivalry and weather receive no invented numerical adjustments.
Schedule context is not a true opponent-adjusted rating. This heuristic has not been calibrated against outcomes. Odds are not inputs. Informational only; not a wagering recommendation.

Descriptive comparison of season stats only. The score has not been validated as a predictor and is not a forecast of the result.

WHAT TO WATCH

Key Factors

Explosive plays
Iowa State's explosive-play offense (#28) faces UCF's explosive-play defense (#104), a statistical advantage for the offense. UCF's explosive-play offense (#72) faces Iowa State's explosive-play defense (#104); the ranks do not show a clear edge.
Edge: Iowa State
Scoring
UCF's scoring offense (#55) faces Iowa State's scoring defense (#104), a statistical advantage for the offense. Iowa State's scoring offense (#62) faces UCF's scoring defense (#79); the ranks do not show a clear edge.
Edge: UCF
HIDDEN STRENGTH
Iowa State has faced opponents ranked in the top 25% by combined win rate. Flag definition
OFF A BYE
Iowa State has 13 days between games. UCF has 13 days between games. Flag definition

How flags and edges work

Stats through Week 10 · Data: CollegeFootballData.com

Offense vs. Defense Comparison

TEAM PROFILE

Side-by-Side

TIERS OF 138 FBS

Metric	Iowa State	UCF	Edge
Record	4-5	5-4	No call
Opponent win percentage rank	#3 68.5% opponent win rate	#27 61.1% opponent win rate	No call
SOS rank · ESPN FPI via CFBD	#17 As of 11/08, 8:46 PM EST	#32 As of 11/08, 8:46 PM EST	No call
SOR rank · ESPN FPI via CFBD	#53 As of 11/08, 8:46 PM EST	#43 As of 11/08, 8:46 PM EST	No call
Offense rank	#72 381.3 ypg	#93 359.0 ypg	No call
Defense rank	#103 394.1 ypg allowed	#92 378.6 ypg allowed	No call
ATS	3-5-1	6-3-0	No call
Rest / last game	13 d 11/07 · Baylor · A	13 d 11/07 · Kansas · A	No call
Venue record (away / home)	0-4	4-1	No call
Next game	11/28 · Kansas State · H	11/28 · Colorado · A	No call
Out / doubtful	1	7	No call
Season to date · completed games before this week · CFBD
Games in sample	9	9	—
Points / game	29.2 ppg62 of 138	30.1 ppg55 of 138	No edge
Points allowed / game	28.9 ppg104 of 138	26.0 ppg79 of 138	No edge
Rushing yards / game	181.0 yds37 of 138	146.2 yds81 of 138	Iowa State
Yards / carry	4.9 yds37 of 138	4.3 yds71 of 138	No edge
Passing yards / game	200.3 yds100 of 138	212.8 yds88 of 138	No edge
Yards / pass attempt	7.4 yds71 of 138	6.8 yds100 of 138	No edge
3rd-down conversions	35.0%111 of 138	35.3%108 of 138	No edge
Red-zone scores	94.1%5 of 138	82.5%72 of 138	Iowa State
Red-zone TDs	67.6%36 of 138	60.0%69 of 138	No edge
Field goal %	Not collected	Not collected	Not enough data
Explosive plays (20+) / game	5.228 of 138	4.372 of 138	Iowa State
Sacks made / game	1.3113 of 138	1.892 of 138	No edge
Sacks allowed / game	1.855 of 138	2.397 of 138	No edge
Rush yards allowed / game	163.1 yds92 of 138	133.3 yds58 of 138	No edge
Pass yards allowed / game	231.0 yds98 of 138	245.2 yds117 of 138	No edge
3rd-down conv. allowed	38.1%63 of 138	40.6%94 of 138	No edge
Red-zone scores allowed	83.9%87 of 138	80.6%66 of 138	No edge
Red-zone TDs allowed	77.4%132 of 138	55.6%56 of 138	UCF
Explosive plays allowed / game	4.7104 of 138	4.7104 of 138	No edge
Turnover margin / game	0.249 of 138	0.343 of 138	No edge
Time of possession	31:0544 of 138	29:0495 of 138	Iowa State

Stats Hub · head to head

Stat comparison

2026 season · stats through Week 10

ISU

AWAYIowa State4-5 · 9 G

UCF

HOMEUCF5-4 · 9 G

Spread Not collectedO/U --Venue Not collectedKickoff Fri 11/20 · 6:00 PM ET

Offense vs. opposing defense

FBS ranks from the category pages · #1 best · edge only when both ranks exist

Iowa StateOffenseUCFDefense

ScoringNo edge

Total yardsNo edge

RushingNo edge

PassingNo edge

Passing efficiencyNo edge

3rd down conversion%No edge

4th down conversion%No edge

Red zone scoring%Edge Iowa State

Sacks allowed vs sacksNo edge

TFL allowed vs TFLNo edge

UCFOffenseIowa StateDefense

ScoringEdge UCF

Total yardsNo edge

RushingNo edge

PassingNo edge

Passing efficiencyEdge UCF

3rd down conversion%Edge Iowa State

4th down conversion%No edge

Red zone scoring%No edge

Sacks allowed vs sacksNo edge

TFL allowed vs TFLNo edge

Punt returnsNo call—

Discipline and special teams

Team vs. team · same statistic on both sides

Iowa StateUCF

Penalties per gameNo edge

Penalty yards per gameNo edge

—Field-goal percentage%No call—

—Net puntingNo call—

Team vs. team

Same stat for both teams

Iowa StateUCF

Turnover marginNo edge

Time of possessiontimeEdge Iowa State

Winning percentageNo edge

Data: CollegeFootballData.com. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams in this snapshot, the same population as the category pages. A team with no stored value for a statistic (for example, too few attempts) is unranked and shows as unavailable rather than shrinking the population. FCS opponents show stored values but are not ranked. Return rows appear only when the hub has return data. Unavailable values are never shown as zero.

Key Injuries

17 LISTED

Iowa State: Carried forward from 2026 Week 10 — awaiting a Week 12 update. Statuses have not been re-confirmed. Injury report updated: not supplied.

UCF: Carried forward from 2026 Week 10 — awaiting a Week 12 update. Statuses have not been re-confirmed. Injury report updated: not supplied.

Team	Pos	Status	Detail
Iowa State	LB	Questionable	Lower-body injury vs Oklahoma State. Coach Jimmy Rogers said he 'could be available' and 'is gonna give it a go, for sure' (The Gazette, Nov 3). Status taken from coach remarks; no official designation. Source · 11/03Stale
Iowa State	QB	Out	Backup quarterback. Backup QB, out about four weeks after an injury at Arizona (The Gazette, Nov 3) Source · 11/03Stale
UCF	QB	Out	Aggravated ankle vs Baylor; questionable Wednesday, out on Thursday report (source dated Nov 5) Source · 11/05Stale
UCF	QB	Probable	Back from hamstring injury that cost five games; expected to start (source dated Nov 5) Source · 11/05Stale
UCF	DB	Out	Team availability report (source dated Nov 5) Source · 11/05Stale
UCF	DB	Out	Team availability report (source dated Nov 5) Source · 11/05Stale
UCF	DB	Out	Team availability report (source dated Nov 5) Source · 11/05Stale
UCF	OL	Out	Team availability report (source dated Nov 5) Source · 11/05Stale
UCF	OL	Reserve	Out for rest of regular season per Scott Frost (source dated Nov 5) Source · 11/05Stale
UCF	DL	Reserve	Out for rest of regular season per Scott Frost (source dated Nov 5) Source · 11/05Stale
UCF	OL	Questionable	Team availability report (source dated Nov 5) Source · 11/05Stale
UCF	LB	Questionable	Team availability report (source dated Nov 5) Source · 11/05Stale
UCF	DB	Probable	Team availability report (source dated Nov 5) Source · 11/05Stale
UCF	LB	Probable	Team availability report (source dated Nov 5) Source · 11/05Stale
UCF	WR	Probable	Team availability report (source dated Nov 5) Source · 11/05Stale
UCF	RB	Probable	Team availability report (source dated Nov 5) Source · 11/05Stale
UCF	DL	Probable	Team availability report (source dated Nov 5) Source · 11/05Stale

Iowa State: Coach Jimmy Rogers (The Gazette, Nov 3): leading tackler LB Sullivan Schlimgen (lower body) 'is gonna give it a go'; backup QB Connor Moberly is out about four weeks. No official Big 12 availability report was located.

UCF: Starting QB Keyone Jenkins ruled out Thursday; Alonza Barnett III returns from a five-game hamstring absence to start. Secondary depleted (Henderson, Bell, Johnson out); OL Owen Spell and DT RJ Jackson Jr. done for regular season; WR Duane Thomas Jr. back from hamstring and off the report.

Quarter splits and venue details

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Schedule & Results

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Unavailable figures are shown as “Not collected.” Rankings are national ranks where supplied.