WEEKLY SLATE / CFB 2026

Week 10 - 11/03 thru 11/07

63 games / 126 teams

LeagueSeasonWeek

	Score		TV						Opp win% A/H	SOS A/H · FPI	SOR A/H · FPI	Weather	Flags
Ohio6-2@ Akron1-7	——	Tue, 11/037:00 PM EST	ESPN2	----	--	--	88103	49118	11168	11096	69136	OK63F / 8 mph	INJ 6
Buffalo5-3@ Miami (OH)5-3	——	Tue, 11/038:00 PM EST	ESPN	----	--	--	11796	9278	90122	114111	9086	OK63F / 7 mph	INJ 7
Central Michigan3-5vs Eastern Michigan4-5	——	Wed, 11/047:30 PM EST	ESPN2	----	--	--	133126	6990	21115	62118	116118	--	NEUINJ 4
Toledo6-2@ Sacramento State1-7	——	Wed, 11/047:00 PM EST	CBSSN	----	--	--	11132	4084	12985	134136	72137	OK64F / 3 mph	INJ 4
Ball State3-5@ Massachusetts4-4	——	Wed, 11/047:00 PM EST	ESPNU	----	--	--	111113	12537	62121	47138	114120	OK59F / 5 mph	INJ 7
James Madison7-2@ Southern Miss2-5	——	Thu, 11/058:00 PM EST	ESPN2	----	--	--	1859	63131	7875	129101	39123	--	INJ 15
UTSA7-1@ Florida Atlantic5-3	——	Thu, 11/057:30 PM EST	ESPN	----	--	--	5638	104134	116120	8299	2363	OK79F / 3 mph	INJ 6
Virginia Tech6-2@ SMU6-1	——	Fri, 11/067:00 PM EST	ESPN	----	SMU -7.5	57.5	4212	2624	130112	9573	4421	--	INJ 4
South Florida5-2@ East Carolina3-4	——	Fri, 11/067:30 PM EST	ESPN2	----	--	--	124102	3860	10382	12772	70109	--	INJ 8
Nebraska5-2@ Illinois4-3	——	Fri, 11/068:00 PM EST	FOX / Fox	----	--	--	3766	998	9065	4336	3353	--	INJ 15
New Mexico6-1@ Nevada3-4	——	Fri, 11/069:00 PM EST	CBSSN	----	--	--	9298	534	13390	100130	34117	--	INJ 14
TCU3-4@ Arizona6-1	——	Fri, 11/0610:15 PM EST	ESPN	----	--	--	5717	629	39117	5176	7822	--	INJ 13
Kentucky7-1@ Tennessee6-2	——	Sat, 11/076:15 PM EST	ESPN	----	Tennessee -5.5	49	7065	7216	5488	820	115	--	INJ 13
Clemson4-3@ Syracuse3-4	——	Sat, 11/0712:00 PM EST	ESPN2	----	--	--	11522	3252	2575	2455	4282	--	INJ 5
West Virginia5-3@ Texas Tech6-1	——	Sat, 11/0712:00 AM EST	TBA	----	--	--	1548	13786	6480	6170	5119	--	INJ 7
Oklahoma State5-2@ Kansas State4-3	——	Sat, 11/0712:00 AM EST	TBA	----	--	--	232	7325	6890	5484	3267	--	INJ 4
Iowa State3-4@ Baylor4-3	——	Sat, 11/0712:00 AM EST	TBA	----	--	--	10841	8154	790	2675	6561	--	INJ 3
Colorado2-5@ Arizona State4-3	——	Sat, 11/077:30 PM EST	ESPN2	----	--	--	6454	10570	680	1439	7752	--	INJ 22
UCF4-3@ Kansas3-4	——	Sat, 11/0712:00 AM EST	TBA	----	--	--	8426	6661	1719	3044	4081	--	INJ 19
Florida State3-4@ Boston College4-3	——	Sat, 11/0712:00 PM EST	ACC Network	----	--	--	4981	12948	1450	659	5859	--	INJ 1
Cincinnati5-2@ Houston6-2	——	Sat, 11/0712:00 AM EST	TBA	----	--	--	2013	12767	119	5628	3518	--	INJ 10
UCLA7-0@ Minnesota5-2	——	Sat, 11/0712:00 AM EST	TBA	----	UCLA -6.5	42.5	27125	1017	130105	6369	237	--	INJ 13
Charlotte1-6@ UAB4-3	——	Sat, 11/073:30 PM EST	TBA	----	--	--	127110	13631	25109	68107	12885	--	INJ 4
Marshall4-3@ Georgia Southern3-4	——	Sat, 11/073:30 PM EST	TBA	----	--	--	6261	12840	9058	9490	91103	--	INJ 3
Louisiana Tech5-2@ Troy4-4	——	Sat, 11/074:00 PM EST	TBA	----	--	--	6082	3650	86127	58106	45115	--	INJ 9
Vanderbilt3-5@ Mississippi State4-3	——	Sat, 11/074:15 PM EST	SEC Network	----	--	--	10731	77106	3244	175	7929	--	INJ 19
Hawai'i2-6@ UTEP1-6	——	Sat, 11/079:30 PM EST	FS1	----	--	--	91136	81110	9045	12248	130129	--	INJ 12
Alabama6-2@ LSU6-2	——	Sat, 11/073:30 PM EST	ABC	----	LSU -3.5	52.5	535	434	3522	723	716	--	INJ 14
Oklahoma4-3@ Florida5-2	——	Sat, 11/077:45 PM EST	SEC Network	----	Florida -4	48.5	11421	1189	1619	19	2614	--	INJ 9
Iowa5-2@ Northwestern6-1	——	Sat, 11/0712:00 AM EST	TBA	----	Northwestern -2.5	42.5	6833	1474	79132	3553	3017	--	INJ 14
BYU6-1@ Utah7-0	——	Sat, 11/0712:00 PM EST	TBA	----	Utah -2.75	47.5	499	2327	49126	3289	86	--	INJ 8
Georgia State4-3@ App State5-2	——	Sat, 11/072:30 PM EST	TBA	----	--	--	2451	6571	135136	113125	9566	--	INJ 9
Tulsa4-4@ Tulane3-4	——	Sat, 11/0712:00 PM EST	ESPNU	----	--	--	85116	116122	12522	10885	9893	--	INJ 7
Rutgers2-5@ Wisconsin5-2	——	Sat, 11/0712:30 PM EST	BTN	----	--	--	62118	12113	2543	4019	10620	--	INJ 8
Penn State3-4@ Washington4-3	——	Sat, 11/0712:00 AM EST	TBA	----	--	--	7268	2851	3290	4579	8068	--	INJ 33
Maryland2-5@ Purdue3-4	——	Sat, 11/0712:30 PM EST	BTN	----	--	--	7855	76119	82	2221	9962	--	INJ 4
Texas A&M4-4@ South Carolina4-3	——	Sat, 11/073:00 PM EST	ESPN2 / ESPN	----	--	--	10519	3053	2812	1516	5736	--	INJ 12
Northern Illinois0-7@ San José State4-4	——	Sat, 11/074:00 PM EST	TBA	----	--	--	12993	12696	39113	74112	138108	--	INJ 6
Arkansas3-4@ Auburn4-3	——	Sat, 11/0712:45 PM EST	SEC Network	----	--	--	10680	67109	1838	103	5627	--	INJ 10
merrimack0-1@ Wake Forest6-1	——	Sat, 11/073:30 PM EST	ACC Network	----	--	--	--25	--35	--106	--38	--11	--	INJ 6
Georgia6-1@ Ole Miss5-2	——	Sat, 11/077:30 PM EST	ABC	----	Georgia -2.75	56	1435	12108	8659	342	109	--	INJ 21
Texas5-2@ Missouri5-2	——	Sat, 11/0712:00 PM EST	TBA	----	Texas -4.5	51	8736	1544	461	429	1225	--	INJ 7
Michigan State2-6@ Michigan4-3	——	Sat, 11/0712:00 AM EST	TBA	----	Michigan -14	39.5	134130	642	353	1237	9446	--	INJ 31
Old Dominion2-6@ Coastal Carolina2-5	——	Sat, 11/071:00 PM EST	TBA	----	--	--	13874	59123	3039	104124	125126	--	INJ 19
Rice1-7@ North Texas6-2	——	Sat, 11/074:00 PM EST	ESPNU	----	--	--	993	10091	2883	6566	13247	--	INJ 11
Oregon4-3@ Ohio State6-1	——	Sat, 11/073:30 PM EST	CBS	----	Ohio State -14	45.5	4410	396	167	1813	314	--	INJ 15
Duke5-2@ NC State3-4	——	Sat, 11/0712:30 PM EST	CW	----	--	--	4046	2294	10955	8667	4387	--	INJ 13
Louisville4-3@ Georgia Tech2-5	——	Sat, 11/077:30 PM EST	ACC Network	----	--	--	877	124117	3747	3377	41110	--	INJ 17
South Alabama4-3@ Louisiana5-3	——	Sat, 11/075:00 PM EST	TBA	----	--	--	4373	12033	6890	102109	9289	--	INJ 12
North Carolina4-3@ UConn4-3	——	Sat, 11/0712:00 PM EST	CBSSN	----	--	--	11223	85107	45134	27132	38102	--
UL Monroe1-6@ Arkansas State4-4	——	Sat, 11/073:00 PM EST	TBA	----	--	--	12176	132102	5090	120115	134105	--	INJ 13
Delaware4-4@ Kennesaw State2-6	——	Sat, 11/073:00 PM EST	TBA	----	--	--	7597	11194	11342	11691	112133	--
Western Kentucky3-5@ Middle Tennessee4-4	——	Sat, 11/073:30 PM EST	TBA	----	--	--	100109	88114	90106	31123	10096	--
Temple2-5@ Navy2-5	——	Sat, 11/073:30 PM EST	CBSSN	----	--	--	7139	11575	6512	105121	121122	--	INJ 12
Missouri State3-5@ Florida International3-4	——	Sat, 11/074:00 PM EST	TBA	----	--	--	8679	13019	12248	81137	124119	--
Liberty6-1@ New Mexico State3-5	——	Sat, 11/078:00 PM EST	ESPNU	----	--	--	5190	1847	138119	12898	49107	--	INJ 1
Boise State6-1@ Colorado State3-4	——	Sat, 11/076:00 PM EST	USA Net	----	--	--	2916	62138	10314	8088	24101	--	INJ 11
Sam Houston1-7@ Jacksonville State6-2	——	Sat, 11/077:00 PM EST	CBSSN	----	--	--	11967	5558	7390	87131	13571	--
Air Force5-2@ Army5-2	——	Sat, 11/077:30 PM EST	CBS	----	Army -5.5	51.5	5845	2087	11772	135126	7464	--	INJ 2
Miami7-0@ Notre Dame6-1	——	Sat, 11/077:30 PM EST	NBC	----	Notre Dame -3.5	54.5	128	211	68106	6041	313	--	INJ 4
Fresno State4-3@ Utah State2-5	——	Sat, 11/079:30 PM EST	USA Net	----	--	--	101128	10156	13650	9349	84111	--	INJ 20
Texas State4-3@ Oregon State5-2	——	Sat, 11/0710:30 PM EST	CW / The CW Network	----	--	--	46	11257	55122	7178	7350	--
Wyoming5-3@ UNLV4-3	——	Sat, 11/0710:30 PM EST	CBSSN	----	--	--	12083	8097	12777	133117	9783	--	INJ 2

Click a row for full analytics. Rank tiers by percentile of FBS teams: dark green top 18%, green 36%, gray 64%, orange 82%, red below. AP in gold. "--" = not collected.

UL Monroe vs Arkansas State / ESC TO CLOSE

UL Monroe vs Arkansas State: Week 10 Matchup Breakdown

MATCHUP ANALYSIS · UL Monroe vs Arkansas State

11/07 · 3:00 PM EST

Unranked

UL Monroe1-6AWAY

Unranked

Arkansas State4-4HOME

Point spreadNot collectedSource and update time not collected

Over / underNot collectedSource and update time not collected

Game-time weatherNot collectedWeather not collected · Source and update time not collected

Informational only · not an offer to wager · lines as of time not collected

OVERALL MATCHUP SUMMARYMODERATE STATISTICAL LEAN

Moderate statistical edge: Arkansas State

Arkansas State has the stronger available statistical profile, led by scoring and passing. UL Monroe's clearest counterpoint is pass protection / pressure. This describes the data, not a predicted winner.

Data coverageBroad95% of planned weight

How much of the comparison had usable stats. Not a win probability.

SampleUL Monroe: 7 profile games · Arkansas State: 8 profile games8 of 9 factors scored

UL Monroe: injury report carried from 2026 Week 9; statuses have not been re-confirmed. Arkansas State: injury report carried from 2026 Week 8; statuses have not been re-confirmed.

When each team has the ball

UL Monroe offense

UL Monroe's passing offense (#89) faces Arkansas State's pass defense (#39). Arkansas State's defense has the stronger ranking here, which could limit UL Monroe's offense in this area.

However, UL Monroe's rushing offense (#116) faces Arkansas State's rush defense (#126). This is weakness against weakness: both units rank in the bottom 30%, so neither brings a strong season-long profile to this comparison.

UL Monroe's pass protection (#67) faces Arkansas State's pass rush (#137). This is a major statistical advantage for UL Monroe's offense against a much lower-ranked defensive unit.

However, UL Monroe's red-zone scoring offense (#107) faces Arkansas State's red-zone scoring defense (#63). Arkansas State's defense has the stronger ranking here, which could limit UL Monroe's offense in this area.

Red-zone scoring counts any score (touchdown or field goal), not touchdown rate alone.

No Statistical Edge

Arkansas State offense

Arkansas State's passing offense (#53) faces UL Monroe's pass defense (#91). The rank gap gives Arkansas State's offense a favorable statistical matchup.

Arkansas State's rushing offense (#99) faces UL Monroe's rush defense (#134). This is weakness against weakness: both units rank in the bottom 30%, so neither brings a strong season-long profile to this comparison.

Arkansas State's pass protection (#67) faces UL Monroe's pass rush (#80). The rankings are close, with no clear statistical separation in this matchup.

Arkansas State's big-play offense (#39) faces UL Monroe's big-play defense (#124). This is a major statistical advantage for Arkansas State's offense against a much lower-ranked defensive unit.

Edge: Arkansas State

Key factors to watch

Scoring
UL Monroe's scoring offense (#120) faces Arkansas State's scoring defense (#98). This is weakness against weakness: both units rank in the bottom 30%, so neither brings a strong season-long profile to this comparison.
Arkansas State's scoring offense (#67) faces UL Monroe's scoring defense (#134). This is a major statistical advantage for Arkansas State's offense against a much lower-ranked defensive unit.
These rankings compare points scored per game versus points allowed per game.
Edge: Arkansas State
Passing
UL Monroe's passing offense (#89) faces Arkansas State's pass defense (#39). Arkansas State's defense has the stronger ranking here, which could limit UL Monroe's offense in this area.
Arkansas State's passing offense (#53) faces UL Monroe's pass defense (#91). The rank gap gives Arkansas State's offense a favorable statistical matchup.
These rankings compare passing yards gained per game versus passing yards allowed per game.
Yards per attempt (offense): UL Monroe averages 6.6 yards per pass attempt (#111), compared with Arkansas State at 8.3 yards per pass attempt (#32). That is about 1.7 more yards per pass attempt for Arkansas State, supporting an advantage in passing efficiency.
Edge: Arkansas State
Rushing
UL Monroe's rushing offense (#116) faces Arkansas State's rush defense (#126). This is weakness against weakness: both units rank in the bottom 30%, so neither brings a strong season-long profile to this comparison.
Arkansas State's rushing offense (#99) faces UL Monroe's rush defense (#134). This is weakness against weakness: both units rank in the bottom 30%, so neither brings a strong season-long profile to this comparison.
These rankings compare rushing yards gained per game versus rushing yards allowed per game.
Yards per carry (offense): UL Monroe averages 3.6 yards per carry (#119), compared with Arkansas State at 4.1 yards per carry (#90). That is about 0.5 more yards per carry for Arkansas State, supporting an advantage in rushing efficiency.
Slight Edge: Arkansas State
Pass protection / pressure
UL Monroe's pass protection (#67) faces Arkansas State's pass rush (#137). This is a major statistical advantage for UL Monroe's offense against a much lower-ranked defensive unit.
Arkansas State's pass protection (#67) faces UL Monroe's pass rush (#80). The rankings are close, with no clear statistical separation in this matchup.
These rankings compare sacks allowed per game versus sacks made per game; rank 1 is best for both.
Slight Edge: UL Monroe
Drive efficiency
UL Monroe's third-down offense (#136) faces Arkansas State's third-down defense (#121). This is weakness against weakness: both units rank in the bottom 30%, so neither brings a strong season-long profile to this comparison.
Arkansas State's third-down offense (#49) faces UL Monroe's third-down defense (#125). This is a major statistical advantage for Arkansas State's offense against a much lower-ranked defensive unit.
These rankings compare third-down conversion rate versus the rate allowed to opponents.
UL Monroe's red-zone scoring offense (#107) faces Arkansas State's red-zone scoring defense (#63). Arkansas State's defense has the stronger ranking here, which could limit UL Monroe's offense in this area.
Arkansas State's red-zone scoring offense (#65) faces UL Monroe's red-zone scoring defense (#120). The rank gap gives Arkansas State's offense a favorable statistical matchup.
These rankings compare the share of red-zone trips ending in any score (touchdown or field goal), not touchdown rate alone.
UL Monroe's red-zone touchdown offense (#77) faces Arkansas State's red-zone touchdown defense (#78). The rankings are close, with no clear statistical separation in this matchup.
Arkansas State's red-zone touchdown offense (#51) faces UL Monroe's red-zone touchdown defense (#98). The rank gap gives Arkansas State's offense a favorable statistical matchup.
These rankings compare the share of red-zone trips ending in a touchdown versus the rate allowed to opponents.
Edge: Arkansas State
Explosive plays
UL Monroe's big-play offense (#129) faces Arkansas State's big-play defense (#114). This is weakness against weakness: both units rank in the bottom 30%, so neither brings a strong season-long profile to this comparison.
Arkansas State's big-play offense (#39) faces UL Monroe's big-play defense (#124). This is a major statistical advantage for Arkansas State's offense against a much lower-ranked defensive unit.
These rankings compare 20+ yard plays made per game versus 20+ yard plays allowed per game.
Edge: Arkansas State

Situational context

UL Monroe is 1-6 overall. Arkansas State is 4-4 overall.
UL Monroe is 1-3 on the road. Arkansas State is 3-1 at home.
Arkansas State: 14 days between games.
UL Monroe: previous opponent Troy · 10/24 · away; next opponent Louisiana · 11/12 · home. Arkansas State: previous opponent Georgia State · 10/24 · home; next opponent Coastal Carolina · 11/14 · away.
Possession per game: UL Monroe 29:13; Arkansas State 31:11. Style context, not an automatic advantage.
UL Monroe: 7 out / season-ending / doubtful entries in the last available injury report; Arkansas State: 1 out / season-ending / doubtful entries in the last available injury report. No player-value adjustment is applied.

Driver breakdown8/9 SCORED

Scoringwt 20 · 1/1 metricsArkansas State
UL Monroe-32Arkansas State
UL Monroe's scoring offense (#120) faces Arkansas State's scoring defense (#98). This is weakness against weakness: both units rank in the bottom 30%, so neither brings a strong season-long profile to this comparison.
Arkansas State's scoring offense (#67) faces UL Monroe's scoring defense (#134). This is a major statistical advantage for Arkansas State's offense against a much lower-ranked defensive unit.
These rankings compare points scored per game versus points allowed per game.
Rushingwt 15 · 2/2 metricsArkansas State
UL Monroe-13Arkansas State
UL Monroe's rushing offense (#116) faces Arkansas State's rush defense (#126). This is weakness against weakness: both units rank in the bottom 30%, so neither brings a strong season-long profile to this comparison.
Arkansas State's rushing offense (#99) faces UL Monroe's rush defense (#134). This is weakness against weakness: both units rank in the bottom 30%, so neither brings a strong season-long profile to this comparison.
These rankings compare rushing yards gained per game versus rushing yards allowed per game.
Yards per carry (offense): UL Monroe averages 3.6 yards per carry (#119), compared with Arkansas State at 4.1 yards per carry (#90). That is about 0.5 more yards per carry for Arkansas State, supporting an advantage in rushing efficiency.
Passingwt 15 · 2/2 metricsArkansas State
UL Monroe-41Arkansas State
UL Monroe's passing offense (#89) faces Arkansas State's pass defense (#39). Arkansas State's defense has the stronger ranking here, which could limit UL Monroe's offense in this area.
Arkansas State's passing offense (#53) faces UL Monroe's pass defense (#91). The rank gap gives Arkansas State's offense a favorable statistical matchup.
These rankings compare passing yards gained per game versus passing yards allowed per game.
Yards per attempt (offense): UL Monroe averages 6.6 yards per pass attempt (#111), compared with Arkansas State at 8.3 yards per pass attempt (#32). That is about 1.7 more yards per pass attempt for Arkansas State, supporting an advantage in passing efficiency.
Drive efficiencywt 15 · 3/3 metricsArkansas State
UL Monroe-30Arkansas State
UL Monroe's third-down offense (#136) faces Arkansas State's third-down defense (#121). This is weakness against weakness: both units rank in the bottom 30%, so neither brings a strong season-long profile to this comparison.
Arkansas State's third-down offense (#49) faces UL Monroe's third-down defense (#125). This is a major statistical advantage for Arkansas State's offense against a much lower-ranked defensive unit.
These rankings compare third-down conversion rate versus the rate allowed to opponents.
UL Monroe's red-zone scoring offense (#107) faces Arkansas State's red-zone scoring defense (#63). Arkansas State's defense has the stronger ranking here, which could limit UL Monroe's offense in this area.
Arkansas State's red-zone scoring offense (#65) faces UL Monroe's red-zone scoring defense (#120). The rank gap gives Arkansas State's offense a favorable statistical matchup.
These rankings compare the share of red-zone trips ending in any score (touchdown or field goal), not touchdown rate alone.
UL Monroe's red-zone touchdown offense (#77) faces Arkansas State's red-zone touchdown defense (#78). The rankings are close, with no clear statistical separation in this matchup.
Arkansas State's red-zone touchdown offense (#51) faces UL Monroe's red-zone touchdown defense (#98). The rank gap gives Arkansas State's offense a favorable statistical matchup.
These rankings compare the share of red-zone trips ending in a touchdown versus the rate allowed to opponents.
Explosive playswt 10 · 1/1 metricsArkansas State
UL Monroe-36Arkansas State
UL Monroe's big-play offense (#129) faces Arkansas State's big-play defense (#114). This is weakness against weakness: both units rank in the bottom 30%, so neither brings a strong season-long profile to this comparison.
Arkansas State's big-play offense (#39) faces UL Monroe's big-play defense (#124). This is a major statistical advantage for Arkansas State's offense against a much lower-ranked defensive unit.
These rankings compare 20+ yard plays made per game versus 20+ yard plays allowed per game.
Pass protection / pressurewt 10 · 1/1 metricsUL Monroe
UL Monroe21Arkansas State
UL Monroe's pass protection (#67) faces Arkansas State's pass rush (#137). This is a major statistical advantage for UL Monroe's offense against a much lower-ranked defensive unit.
Arkansas State's pass protection (#67) faces UL Monroe's pass rush (#80). The rankings are close, with no clear statistical separation in this matchup.
These rankings compare sacks allowed per game versus sacks made per game; rank 1 is best for both.
Turnover marginwt 5 · 1/1 metricsArkansas State
UL Monroe-53Arkansas State
Turnover margin (takeaways − giveaways): UL Monroe averages -0.4 net turnovers per game (#99), compared with Arkansas State at 0.6 net turnovers per game (#27). That is about 1 more net turnovers per game for Arkansas State, supporting an advantage in season-long turnover balance.
Field-goal efficiencywt 5 · 0/1 metricsNot enough data
Not collected or not broadly ranked; no advantage is assigned.
Schedule contextwt 5 · 1/1 metricsUL Monroe
UL Monroe9Arkansas State
Opponents' combined win rate: UL Monroe 59.1%; Arkansas State 50%. This is a schedule proxy, not a full opponent adjustment.

Method and limitations

Limitations

Missing or narrowly covered metrics are excluded. Their weights are not redistributed to the remaining metrics.
UL Monroe: injury report carried from 2026 Week 9; statuses have not been re-confirmed.
Arkansas State: injury report carried from 2026 Week 8; statuses have not been re-confirmed.
Game-time weather not collected; no weather adjustment is applied.

How this is computed

Rules-based comparison of the existing public CFBD pre-week profiles and original injury/context notes, with NWS weather context. No new provider or AI requests.
Rank strength = (teams ranked − rank) / (teams ranked − 1). A metric needs values and ranks for both teams and coverage of at least 80% of the FBS population. Rank 1 is best, including defense allowed and sacks allowed.
For each offense/defense metric: [(away offense strength − home defense strength) − (home offense strength − away defense strength)] / 2. Efficiency-only metrics compare the two teams directly.
Related metrics share a group weight: rushing/passing yardage receives twice the weight of yards per carry/attempt. Third down receives half of drive efficiency; red-zone score and TD percentages share the other half.
Weights: scoring 20%; rushing 15%; passing 15%; drive efficiency 15%; explosive plays 10%; pressure/protection 10%; turnover margin 5%; field goals 5%; schedule context 5%. Schedule uses the difference in opponents’ combined win rates.
Net comparison index: -22.8 on a −100 to +100 scale (positive favors UL Monroe, negative Arkansas State). Missing weights stay neutral rather than being redistributed. This is not a probability, projected margin or betting model.
Overall call requires 55% of planned scoring weight and three games per team. Under 4 index points is even; 4+ slight; 12+ moderate requires 65% coverage and four games; 25+ strong requires 85% coverage and five games. Incomplete profile samples are not scored.
Record, venue splits, total offense/defense ranks and AP polls are not added again because they overlap existing evidence. Possession time is style context, not inherently better. Injuries, rest, rivalry and weather receive no invented numerical adjustments.
Schedule context is not a true opponent-adjusted rating. This heuristic has not been calibrated against outcomes. Odds are not inputs. Informational only; not a wagering recommendation.

Descriptive comparison of season stats only. The score has not been validated as a predictor and is not a forecast of the result.

TEAM PROFILE

Side by side

TIERS OF 138 FBS

Metric	UL Monroe	Arkansas State	Edge
Record	1-6	4-4	Arkansas State
Opponent win percentage rank	#50 59.1% opponent win rate	#90 50.0% opponent win rate	UL Monroe
SOS rank · ESPN FPI via CFBD	#120 As of 10/30, 9:30 AM EDT	#115 As of 10/30, 9:30 AM EDT	Arkansas State
SOR rank · ESPN FPI via CFBD	#134 As of 10/30, 9:30 AM EDT	#105 As of 10/30, 9:30 AM EDT	Arkansas State
Offense rank	#121 327.3 ypg	#76 378.9 ypg	Arkansas State
Defense rank	#132 442.7 allowed	#102 386 allowed	Arkansas State
ATS	2-5-0	4-4-0	Arkansas State
Rest / last game	Not collected 10/24 · Troy · A	14d 10/24 · Georgia State · H	No call
Venue record (away / home)	1-3	3-1	Arkansas State
Next game	11/12 · Louisiana · H	11/14 · Coastal Carolina · A	No call
Out / doubtful	7	1	Arkansas State
Season to date · completed games before this week · CFBD
Games in sample	7	8	—
Points / game	20.1 ppg120 of 138	28.8 ppg67 of 138	Arkansas State
Points allowed / game	37.3 ppg134 of 138	27.3 ppg98 of 138	Arkansas State
Rushing yards / game	116.7 yds116 of 138	136.4 yds99 of 138	Arkansas State
Yards / carry	3.6 yds119 of 138	4.1 yds90 of 138	Arkansas State
Passing yards / game	210.6 yds89 of 138	242.5 yds53 of 138	Arkansas State
Yards / pass attempt	6.6 yds111 of 138	8.3 yds32 of 138	Arkansas State
3rd-down conversions	29.2%136 of 138	42.4%49 of 138	Arkansas State
Red-zone scores	77.3%107 of 138	82.9%65 of 138	Arkansas State
Red-zone TDs	59.1%77 of 138	65.7%51 of 138	Arkansas State
Field goal %	Not collected	Not collected	Not enough data
Explosive plays (20+) / game	2.7129 of 138	539 of 138	Arkansas State
Sacks made / game	1.980 of 138	0.6137 of 138	UL Monroe
Sacks allowed / game	1.967 of 138	1.967 of 138	Even
Rush yards allowed / game	218.7 yds134 of 138	194.9 yds126 of 138	Arkansas State
Pass yards allowed / game	224 yds91 of 138	191.1 yds39 of 138	Arkansas State
3rd-down conv. allowed	44.7%125 of 138	44.3%121 of 138	Arkansas State
Red-zone scores allowed	88.9%120 of 138	80%63 of 138	Arkansas State
Red-zone TDs allowed	63%98 of 138	60%78 of 138	Arkansas State
Explosive plays allowed / game	5.1124 of 138	4.8114 of 138	Arkansas State
Turnover margin / game	-0.42999 of 138	+0.62527 of 138	Arkansas State
Time of possession	29:1387 of 138	31:1141 of 138	Arkansas State

POSSESSION MATCHUPS

Offense vs. Defense Comparison

2 POSSESSIONS

OFFENSE VS OPPOSING DEFENSE

When UL Monroe has the ball

EDGE AT 15+ RANK GAP · #1 BEST

UL Monroe offenseArkansas State defense

20.1 ppg120 of 138

ScoringDefense edge · 22 spots

27.3 ppg98 of 138

116.7 yds116 of 138

Rushing yards / gameNo edge

194.9 yds126 of 138

210.6 yds89 of 138

Passing yards / gameDefense edge · 50 spots

191.1 yds39 of 138

29.2%136 of 138

Third downDefense edge · 15 spots

44.3%121 of 138

77.3%107 of 138

Red-zone scoreDefense edge · 44 spots

80%63 of 138

59.1%77 of 138

Red-zone TDNo edge

60%78 of 138

2.7129 of 138

Explosive plays (20+)Defense edge · 15 spots

4.8114 of 138

1.967 of 138

Sacks allowed vs sacks madeOffense edge · 70 spots

0.6137 of 138

OFFENSE VS OPPOSING DEFENSE

When Arkansas State has the ball

EDGE AT 15+ RANK GAP · #1 BEST

Arkansas State offenseUL Monroe defense

28.8 ppg67 of 138

ScoringOffense edge · 67 spots

37.3 ppg134 of 138

136.4 yds99 of 138

Rushing yards / gameOffense edge · 35 spots

218.7 yds134 of 138

242.5 yds53 of 138

Passing yards / gameOffense edge · 38 spots

224 yds91 of 138

42.4%49 of 138

Third downOffense edge · 76 spots

44.7%125 of 138

82.9%65 of 138

Red-zone scoreOffense edge · 55 spots

88.9%120 of 138

65.7%51 of 138

Red-zone TDOffense edge · 47 spots

63%98 of 138

539 of 138

Explosive plays (20+)Offense edge · 85 spots

5.1124 of 138

1.967 of 138

Sacks allowed vs sacks madeNo edge

1.980 of 138

SEASON PROFILE

Pace & Pressure

3 METRICS

Time of possession / game: UL Monroe 29:1387 of 138; Arkansas State 31:1141 of 138
Defensive sacks made / game: UL Monroe 1.980 of 138; Arkansas State 0.6137 of 138
Offensive sacks allowed / game: UL Monroe 1.967 of 138; Arkansas State 1.967 of 138

SEASON PROFILE

Red Zone

5 METRICS

Offensive red-zone score rate: UL Monroe 77.3%107 of 138; Arkansas State 82.9%65 of 138
Defensive red-zone score rate allowed: UL Monroe 88.9%120 of 138; Arkansas State 80%63 of 138
Offensive red-zone touchdown rate: UL Monroe 59.1%77 of 138; Arkansas State 65.7%51 of 138
Defensive red-zone touchdown rate allowed: UL Monroe 63%98 of 138; Arkansas State 60%78 of 138
Field-goal accuracy: UL Monroe Not collected; Arkansas State Not collected

SPECIAL TEAMS · CFBD

Team Kicking

2 TEAMS

UL Monroe: Field goals (FGM/FGA): Not collected; Field-goal accuracy: Not collected; Longest field goal: Not collected; Extra points (XPM/XPA): Not collected
Arkansas State: Field goals (FGM/FGA): Not collected; Field-goal accuracy: Not collected; Longest field goal: Not collected; Extra points (XPM/XPA): Not collected

AUTO-DETECTED CONTEXT

Flags

3 FLAGS

MISMATCH · Arkansas State offense has a 56-rank edge against UL Monroe defense.
BIG UPSET LAST WEEK · UL Monroe won as an underdog of at least 7 points.
OFF A BYE · Arkansas State has 14 days between games.

UL MonroeRest: Not collectedNext: 11/12 · Louisiana · H

Arkansas StateRest: 14 daysNext: 11/14 · Coastal Carolina · A

PLAYER AVAILABILITY

Key Injuries

13 LISTED

UL Monroe: Carried forward from 2026 Week 9 — awaiting a Week 10 update. Statuses have not been re-confirmed.

Arkansas State: Carried forward from 2026 Week 8 — awaiting a Week 10 update. Statuses have not been re-confirmed.

Team	Pos	Status	Detail
UL Monroe	DL	Questionable	Sun Belt report (On SI Southern Miss, Oct 29) Source · Source date unknown
UL Monroe	DL	Questionable	Sun Belt report (On SI Southern Miss, Oct 29) Source · Source date unknown
UL Monroe	WR	Probable	Sun Belt report (On SI Southern Miss, Oct 29) Source · Source date unknown
UL Monroe	WR	Probable	Sun Belt report (On SI Southern Miss, Oct 29) Source · Source date unknown
UL Monroe	LB	Probable	Sun Belt report (On SI Southern Miss, Oct 29) Source · Source date unknown
UL Monroe	DB	Out	On SI lists under 'out for the season' (On SI Southern Miss, Oct 29); official report shows Out Source · Source date unknown
UL Monroe	DB	Out	On SI lists under 'out for the season' (On SI Southern Miss, Oct 29); official report shows Out Source · Source date unknown
UL Monroe	WR	Out	On SI lists under 'out for the season' (On SI Southern Miss, Oct 29); official report shows Out Source · Source date unknown
UL Monroe	LB	Out	On SI lists under 'out for the season' (On SI Southern Miss, Oct 29); official report shows Out Source · Source date unknown
UL Monroe	OL	Out	On SI lists under 'out for the season' (On SI Southern Miss, Oct 29); official report shows Out Source · Source date unknown
UL Monroe	RB	Out	On SI lists under 'out for the season' (On SI Southern Miss, Oct 29); official report shows Out Source · Source date unknown
UL Monroe	LB	Out	On SI lists under 'out for the season' (On SI Southern Miss, Oct 29); official report shows Out Source · Source date unknown

Arkansas State	RB	Out	Knee; projected to miss the rest of the season Source · Source date unknown

UL Monroe: Seven out (RB Makin Lenard, WR Javon Campbell, DBs Korian Wilson and RJ Hall, LBs Le'kell McGowan and Jackson Parker, OL Roscoe Tucker); DLs Zyan Tremont and Tyrell Brown questionable. Wednesday's RB J. Wright is not on the report. No QB issue.

Arkansas State: No major new injuries reported (checked Covers/KAIT); RB D. Spencer is out (knee, likely for the season).

SCHEDULE CONTEXT

Previous Opponents

FULL SEASON

UL Monroe

Opponent	Date	Result	Line	ATS
@ Mississippi State	09/05	L 13-62	28.5	L
@ UAB	09/12	L 20-26	9.25	W
SE Louisiana	09/19	L 35-38	-9.75	L
Florida Atlantic	09/26	L 17-45	11.5	L
@ South Alabama	10/03	L 35-52	13.25	L
Louisiana Tech	10/17	L 0-24	14.5	L
@ Troy	10/24	W 21-14	13.5	W

Arkansas State

Opponent	Date	Result	Line	ATS
@ Memphis	09/05	L 24-42	10.5	L
West Georgia	09/12	W 52-7	-31.5	W
@ TCU	09/19	L 7-31	19	L
Kennesaw State	09/26	W 17-14	-6.5	L
@ Louisiana	10/03	L 20-23	5.25	W
South Alabama	10/08	L 49-56	-3	L
@ Southern Miss	10/17	W 23-13	-6	W
Georgia State	10/24	W 38-32	2.5	W

Game context

GAME CONTEXT

Home field: Arkansas State

UL Monroe travel

Home base: Time zone not collected. Game-venue time-zone comparison not collected.

Travel is context only, not a statistical advantage.

Unavailable figures are shown as “Not collected.” Rankings are national ranks where supplied.